Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD29
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 29

LD29: a rematch in the Senate, and a Speaker defending his House seat

November 3, 2026 general election. District 29 is entirely in Maricopa County, in the west Valley. It contains Circle City, El Mirage, Litchfield Park, Morristown, and Youngtown, most of Surprise, and parts of Glendale, Goodyear, and Peoria. Registration in the 2026 general election guide: 40.35 percent Republican, 24.14 percent Democratic, 35.51 percent other. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district not competitive, and the Arizona Republic lists a key election vote spread of Republican plus 13.3 percent. The 2024 presidential vote in the district was Republican plus 18.3 points, and the 2024 Senate race here finished 59.3 to 40.7 percent. No forecaster rating for these specific races was found.

State Senate: Shamp vs. Stafford, the rematch

The structural fact: this is the same pairing as 2024, which Sen. Janae Shamp won 59.3 to 40.7 percent. Both were unopposed in their 2026 primaries: Shamp with 21,466 Republican votes, Eric Stafford with 14,015 Democratic votes. Stafford is running a better funded campaign than a typical challenger in a district like this, and he is still running in a district that voted Republican for president by 18.3 points. Call it contested, not competitive, on the numbers available.

Janae Shamp (Republican, incumbent)

State senator for LD29 since January 2023, first elected in 2022 after defeating incumbent Rep. Joanne Osborne in the Republican primary. Surprise resident. Registered nurse: perioperative (operating room) nurse and nurse manager. Arizona State University, bachelor's in molecular biosciences and biotechnology, cum laude; Grand Canyon University, bachelor's in nursing, magna cum laude, second in her class, per her Senate Republican biography. She describes herself as a pro life, constitutional conservative. She was endorsed by Donald Trump in her first run. Senate Majority Leader from January 13, 2025 to June 27, 2025, when her caucus replaced her; see controversies.

Record and stated priorities:

  • Her own platform, from her Senate Republican page: protection of constitutional rights, election integrity, medical freedom, border security, the agricultural industry, water, parental authority, and school choice.
  • Health bills, her professional lane: Senate Republicans credit her with four bills signed into law in a two year span to strengthen sex offender registration and close loopholes, after which, in the caucus's account, more than 6,800 Level 1 sex offenders appeared on Arizona's public registry. She also sponsored the Physician Assistant Licensure Compact mirror bill (SB 1238, with HB 2190), to let qualified physician assistants licensed in other compact states practice in Arizona faster. Her quote on it: "As a nurse, I've seen firsthand how staffing shortages directly impact patient care."
  • Fluoride ban proposal (SB 1019, introduced for the 2026 session): a bill to prohibit adding fluoride or fluoride containing compounds to any public water system in Arizona. She called it a direct strike against government overreach and said families should be able to choose their fluoride exposure through voluntary products. Utah in 2025 became the first state to enact a similar statewide prohibition.
  • Trump Derangement Syndrome study proposal (announced December 23, 2025): legislation directing the Arizona Department of Health Services to study the psychological, social, and behavioral effects of intense political obsession with President Trump. Her statement: "When extreme political fixation begins to distort judgment, damage relationships, and destabilize communities, the government has a responsibility to seek facts and understanding." The bill number in that announcement was SB 1070; its legislative outcome was not verified in the sources retrieved, so no outcome is claimed here.
  • Gender related medical bills: the Arizona Republic notes she supported bills related to medicine, including legislation that would have created a pathway for adults who had gender reassignment surgery to later sue their doctors, and bills supporting a person's right to decline vaccines.

Money: campaign finance reports as of March 2026, via See the Money as compiled on Wikipedia: raised $35,452.99, spent $22,539.67, cash on hand $147,183.44. The large cash figure relative to the amount raised this cycle indicates carryover from prior cycles; that reading is arithmetic, not a filing claim.

Controversies, with responses:

  • Removed as Majority Leader (June 2025): senators voted to replace her with Sen. John Kavanagh after a contentious budget process in which Shamp opposed the spending plan preferred by Senate President Warren Petersen. She later told the Arizona Republic she had been marginalized in the leadership role and excluded from budget meetings. In 2026 the Republic reported she checked out of Senate work around mid April and had not returned as of June 11, while the budget moved forward. Petersen's response, on the record: "We have the votes."
  • Residency complaint (October 2026): citizens filed a quo warranto complaint with the Arizona Attorney General arguing she unlawfully holds office because she lives in Wickenburg, at a property owned by her husband's investment firm, about 20 miles west of her district. The complaint cites a sign at the property reading "Shamp's Hideout" with the names Skip and Janae, a Wickenburg mailing address on her voter registration, and a 2022 donation listing the Wickenburg address. It also notes the Surprise home she claims is owned by a campaign donor. Her written response to the Arizona Republic: the accusations are "obviously political," she lives in the district, she has been at the same address for years, and she gets these questions at this time every two years, just before ballots go out. No resolution of the complaint was reported in the sources retrieved as of October 27, 2026.

Eric Stafford (Democrat)

Community organizer, small business advocate, and lifelong Arizonan, per the LD29 Democrats. Certified airframe and powerplant mechanic and machinist, per his campaign site. Age 28, a renter, per Run for Something, which endorsed him in October 2026: he worked extra jobs in high school to pay for aviation maintenance school and is studying to be a medical assistant while campaigning. He was the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2024 and lost to Shamp, 59.3 to 40.7 percent. His campaign describes him as a Clean Elections candidate.
  • Stated priorities: his site says he is running to put LD29 families first, for fair wages, strong schools, affordable housing, and a government accountable to everyone. The Arizona Republic summarizes his campaign as centered on public education and policies protecting workers, rejecting special interest money, and representing younger Arizonans. Run for Something quotes his motive directly: he is tired of watching politicians get rich while everyone else cannot afford a doctor's visit.
  • Money: campaign finance reports as of March 2026, via See the Money as compiled on Wikipedia: raised $25,592.82, spent $1,644.70, cash on hand $2,669.38. Those three numbers do not reconcile on their own, which usually means prior cycle balances or debt are in the filing; this page prints them as reported and does not invent a reconciliation.
  • Controversies: none found.

State House: two seats, three candidates, one Democrat

How this race works: vote for up to two. There are only three candidates for two seats, and two of them are the Republican incumbents, one of whom is the Speaker of the House. Christine Scianna, the lone Democrat, takes a seat only by finishing in the top two, ahead of an incumbent, in a district that voted Republican for president by 18.3 points.

Steve Montenegro (Republican, incumbent)

Speaker of the Arizona House since January 13, 2025, the first Hispanic Speaker in state history. Born in El Salvador in 1981, immigrated to the United States with his family as a young child. Arizona State University, bachelor's in political science, magna cum laude, plus theological study. Long legislative career: House member 2009 to 2017, including Speaker Pro Tempore and Majority Leader; state senator for part of 2017, resigning December 15, 2017 to run for Congress; he lost the 2018 special election primary for Arizona's 8th congressional district. Returned to the House in January 2023 for LD29. Before and between terms: district staff for Congressman Trent Franks, ministry pastor work, and executive director of a nonprofit helping inner city high school students.

Record points, attributed: his official biographies credit him with voting for the largest tax cuts in state history, the Arizona Jobs Bill, and SB 1070 (the 2010 immigration law), and with authoring Arizona's transparency laws, the American Civics Act, and the ban on affirmative action. He was, in 2010, the only Latino legislator to vote for SB 1070, and he sponsored legislation to end Tucson Unified's Mexican American studies program. Those two items built his early reputation and remain the main historical controversy attached to his name.

Stated priorities (2026 campaign, per the Arizona Republic): border security, tax cuts, and other policies closely aligned with President Donald Trump.

Controversies, with context: in 2025 he was one of four House Republican leaders targeted by a recall campaign led by parents of children with disabilities, over the delayed $122 million supplemental for the Division of Developmental Disabilities. The same funding fight is covered on the LD28 page for Rep. Livingston, the Appropriations chairman. A bipartisan funding bill passed in April 2025. No outcome removing Montenegro was reported.

Money: TransparencyUSA, general election listing retrieved October 27, 2026: contributions $247,070.00, expenditures $22,918.75. TransparencyUSA does not date stamp that table on the page retrieved, so treat it as the cycle total shown at retrieval, not as a filing date figure.

James Taylor (Republican, incumbent)

State representative since January 13, 2025, elected in 2024 alongside Montenegro after Republican leaders in LD29 recruited him when Rep. Austin Smith withdrew. Litchfield Park resident, per the Arizona Republic. Retired from Arizona Public Service, the state's largest electric utility, after a long career, per his biographical summaries. Committee listings in the sources retrieved differ: one lists him as vice chair of the House Education Committee and a member of Ways and Means and Public Safety; another lists vice chair of Artificial Intelligence and Innovation and membership on Natural Resources, Energy and Water, Federalism and Military Affairs and Elections, Public Safety and Law Enforcement, and Ways and Means. See verification notes.
  • Stated priorities: parental control and protection of the nuclear family, developing clean sources of energy, and economic growth and prosperity, in his account of his own politics. In a January 2026 House release for his HB 2492, he argued for lifting urban growth boundaries to unlock home building and lower costs: Arizonans, he wrote, voted for growth and freedom, not artificial restrictions and scarcity.
  • Money: TransparencyUSA, general election listing retrieved October 27, 2026: contributions $15,425.00, expenditures $3,726.43.
  • Controversies: none found. Individual key votes for Taylor were not verified at name level in the sources retrieved, so none are printed as his.

Christine Marie Scianna (Democrat)

Native Phoenician and lifelong Arizonan. Mother of four, two teenagers and two adult children, one of whom has nonverbal autism. Former middle school science teacher: a teaching background spanning 17 years, including nine years of science instruction. For the past six years she has been an advocate for special needs families, testifying alongside Republicans, Democrats, and independents, after, in her account, the systems her family depended on failed to meet her daughter's needs. She is running as a Clean Elections candidate, with public financing, and says she will not take PAC money, dark money, or large donor money.
  • Stated priorities (her campaign site): making life more affordable, strengthening public schools and health care, and protecting vulnerable Arizonans with real accountability. The LD29 Democrats add fair pay for educators, climate science, and expanded health care access.
  • Money: TransparencyUSA, general election listing retrieved October 27, 2026: contributions $26,520.43, expenditures $2,948.41. Because she is a Clean Elections participant, direct contributions to her are limited by the program, and party support routed elsewhere would not appear in that figure.
  • Controversies: none found.

Verification notes

  • Individual roll call votes are not claimed for any candidate on this page except where a sourced record names the member. Shamp's record is documented through bills she sponsored and caucus releases, Montenegro's through his official biographies and historical coverage, and Taylor has no name level votes verified at all. That gap is admitted rather than padded with party line assumptions.
  • Money comes from two different systems and two different dates: Senate figures are March 2026 campaign finance reports compiled from See the Money, House figures are TransparencyUSA cycle totals as displayed when retrieved on October 27, 2026. Do not compare them as if they were the same snapshot.
  • Stafford's March 2026 money lines do not reconcile (raised minus spent is far larger than cash on hand). The figures are printed as reported; the explanation was not in the sources retrieved.
  • Taylor's committee assignments conflict across retrieved sources, likely because they describe different sessions. Both versions are printed in his entry, unresolved.
  • The residency complaint against Shamp is an allegation in a formal complaint, reported by the Arizona Republic on October 2, 2026, with her denial included in her entry above. Its outcome was not reported in the sources retrieved.
  • Shamp's majority leader dates follow her biographical record: January 13, 2025 to June 27, 2025, succeeded by John Kavanagh. One Arizona Republic line describes her as previously having served as majority leader, which matches that removal.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For the House race, vote for up to two. Voting for one is allowed and does not spoil your ballot.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.
Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.