Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD27
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 27

LD27: the sleeper district, where the House race is the real contest

November 3, 2026 general election. District 27 is entirely in Maricopa County: parts of northwest Phoenix, Peoria, and Glendale, a residential suburban district that includes the Peoria Sports Complex, the ASU West campus, and Midwestern University, about 240,634 people. Registration in the 2026 general election guide: 37.66 percent Republican, 26.58 percent Democratic, 35.75 percent other. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission placed the district outside its competitive range with a Republican advantage of about 8.94 points on its key election spread, and the 2024 presidential vote in the district was Republican plus 11.3 points. Despite that rating, Arizona Agenda and State Affairs both treat the House race as a Democratic target because of how close it was in 2024. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Payne vs. Clayton, after a near loss in the primary

The structural fact: Sen. Kevin Payne (R) was unopposed in the 2024 general election, but his 2026 fight came early: he survived his Republican primary against former Sen. Anthony Kern by 296 votes, 50.88 to 49.12 percent. In the general election he faces Democrat Kyle Clayton in a district Republicans carried by 11.3 points in the 2024 presidential race. Payne is the clear favorite in November; the primary margin is the evidence that his hold on his own party in this district is not automatic.

Kevin Payne (Republican, incumbent)

LD27 state senator since January 2025. He previously served in the state House, in District 27 from 2023 and earlier in the old District 21, before moving to the Senate. A U.S. Navy veteran, a business owner, and a former electrical engineer and information technology professional, per azcentral. Chairman of the Senate Public Safety Committee. Endorsed by the Arizona Police Association, the Arizona State Troopers Association, the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the Arizona Technology Council.

Signature record, the execution bills: Payne sponsored SCR 1049 and its companion SB 1751 in 2026, which would add firing squad as a lawful method of execution, let a condemned inmate choose among firing squad, lethal injection, and lethal gas with lethal injection as the default, and, in the bill text as summarized by legislative staff, require firing squad for a defendant who murdered a law enforcement officer. The Senate passed the package on Republican votes, with the SB 1751 third read at 16 to 9 with 5 not voting per the azleg.gov summary, and the constitutional change in SCR 1049 requires voter approval to take effect. Payne, quoted in Senate Republican and news coverage: "Arizona juries impose the death penalty only in the most egregious cases after lengthy trials and appeals. When a lawful sentence is handed down, the state has an obligation to carry it out." He told the Arizona Republic he proposed it because of problems with lethal injections, saying "This is just another avenue they could choose." Opposition, attributed: the Catholic Mobilizing Network opposed the bill, arguing new execution methods are being revived because pharmaceutical companies will not sell lethal injection drugs; Attorney General Kris Mayes took no position, citing her office role in enforcing the death penalty. Payne has also, with other lawmakers, publicly grilled the state corrections chief over a spike in prison deaths, per azcentral coverage linked from its legislature guide.

Other stated positions: he says he has voted for strong border security and election integrity, and he pledges balanced budgets, low taxes, and gun rights. On affordability in the Republic candidate survey, he proposed changing the state fuel formula to match surrounding states, arguing Arizona gas prices run 50 cents to a dollar higher because of the current formula and that cheaper fuel lowers the cost of all shipped goods.

Money: no campaign finance total for Payne was located in the records retrieved as of October 26, 2026. The absence is reported, not estimated. Controversies: the firing squad proposal is his main controversy and it is a policy fight, covered above with his rationale and the opposition response. The near loss to Kern in the primary, a rematch with a predecessor who held this Senate seat from 2023 to 2025, is a political fact, not a scandal.

Kyle Clayton (Democrat)

Democratic challenger. A full time Realtor, born and raised in Legislative District 27 and now raising his family there, with a child in the Washington Elementary School District. He has served on the Washington Elementary School District Governing Board since 2023 and is its board president. Through the Shaw Butte Neighborhood Alliance he says he helped secure more than $250,000 in local investments and plant more than 300 trees. He won his Democratic primary unopposed with 12,382 votes.
  • Stated priorities, from his campaign site: Education: address the funding imbalance between elementary and high school districts, raise per pupil funding, fully fund full day kindergarten and expand Pre K, and reform ESA vouchers for transparency and results. Lowering costs: lower prescription costs and expand coverage for young adults, invest in energy assistance and home efficiency, expand childcare access, and reform zoning to allow more homes while stopping corporate bulk buying. Fiscal responsibility: evaluate tax incentives for taxpayer value and require performance based outcomes from companies receiving state benefits. Community material also emphasizes extreme heat and rising energy costs, with investment in cooling infrastructure and resilience.
  • Endorsements, attributed: Equality Arizona, Reproductive Freedom for All, Run for Something, and a gun sense voter guide listing through Moms Demand Action, where he is described as a member of the Phoenix group.
  • Money: as of campaign finance reports in March 2026, raised $1,000.00, spent $57.72, $942.28 on hand (See the Money, via the Senate election summary). That date is part of the fact; a school board president challenging an incumbent senator in an R plus 11 district will have raised more since, and no later total was retrieved.
  • Controversies: none found.

State House: two seats, three candidates, one single shot rematch

How this race works, and why people call it the sleeper seat: vote for up to two. This is an exact rerun of 2024: Republican incumbents Lisa Fink and Tony Rivero against one Democrat, Deborah Howard, running a single shot campaign, meaning Democrats fielded only one House candidate and urge her supporters to cast only one of their two votes, for her, rather than giving the second vote to a Republican. In 2024 Howard finished about 3.6 points behind Rivero for the second seat, and she ran just 0.6 points behind Democratic U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego in the district, a stronger showing than Democrats managed in the official battleground districts, per analysis by Nelson Morgan, who chairs the Arizona Democratic Party Census and Redistricting Committee, reported by Arizona Agenda. Howard only needs to pass one incumbent to take a seat. That is the live race in this district.

Lisa Fink (Republican, incumbent)

LD27 state representative since January 2025, elected in 2024 in her first run for public office. President of the Protect Arizona Children Coalition, board president of Choice Academies, Inc., and part of the group that started a pre K to 12 school; a longtime education and parental rights advocate, active in Mommy Lobby AZ. A consultant dietitian; bachelor degree in administrative dietetics from Brigham Young University. She and her husband Larry, who runs a dental practice in the district, have six children. She is listed as a Clean Elections participating candidate in the Citizens Clean Elections Commission general election list. She led the Republican primary with 13,796 votes to Rivero 12,442.

Record: Howard and Blog for Arizona report that in 2026 Fink sponsored HB 2093 to repeal the state mental health education requirement, a law passed with bipartisan votes in 2021, arguing parents, not schools, should take charge of that subject; that attribution is to her opponent campaign and a partisan outlet, and this page did not independently verify the bill number on azleg.gov, so it is printed as attributed, not as a verified roll call. Separately, family court coverage credits Fink with drafting a ban on court ordered reunification camps, modeled on a California bill and carried with Sen. Shawnna Bolick as SB 1372, which Gov. Hobbs signed; that account comes from advocacy oriented coverage and is likewise attributed here. What is not in dispute is her pre office record: as coalition president she advocated for laws restricting sexually explicit material for minors, protecting womens sports, and restricting gender related medical procedures for minors, in her organizations own description.

Stated priorities: parental rights and school choice, data privacy for students, low taxes and regulatory limits to fight inflation, opposition to noncitizen purchases of Arizona farmland and land near military bases on tax base, water, and national security grounds, medical informed consent, border enforcement, and defending constitutional rights including, in her words, "our right to life, our medical liberties, and our 2nd Amendment rights."

Money: Arizona Agenda reported in September 2026 that Fink reports about $39,000 in total income to date this cycle, the lowest of the three House candidates here. No filing level total with a date was retrieved beyond that report.

Controversies, with her side: Howard campaign argues Fink's "leave it to parents" approach to sex education and mental health fails children whose abuser is inside the home, writing that most child sexual abuse is committed by someone the child knows. Howard also says she believes Fink is sincere, and that "intent isn't the test." Fink's stated rationale, in the same coverage, is parental authority: parents should decide what children are taught on these subjects. Both positions are printed because the dispute is the campaign.

Tony Rivero (Republican, incumbent)

LD27 state representative since January 2025, returning to the Legislature after earlier service. He represented District 21 in the House for three terms, 2015 to 2021, chairing the State and International Affairs Committee for two of them, and before that served a four year term on the Peoria City Council, elected in 2010 at age 28 from the Acacia District. Founder and CEO of Global Connect Group, a consulting firm. Born in Peoria, educated at Peoria High School, Glendale Community College, and Arizona State University, with a bachelor degree in education and a master degree in public administration. He previously worked in the Peoria City Manager office and interned for U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl.

Record: in his earlier House service his signature work was international trade: he credits himself with establishing Arizona trade offices in Israel and in Chihuahua and Guanajuato, Mexico, and hosting foreign dignitaries and trade missions. On the Peoria council he points to same day permitting, a reduction in the city food tax, and founding Fiesta Peoria. In the current term he serves on Appropriations; a full current committee list was not verified for this page and is not printed. No individual 2025 or 2026 roll call votes for Rivero were verified at name level for this page, so none are printed as key votes.

Stated priorities: fiscal responsibility as his top priority, in his campaign words voting for balanced budgets, less government, and tax cuts; limited government with less red tape and waste; job creation; and transparent government open and responsive to the people.

Money: Arizona Agenda reported in September 2026 that Rivero reports about $92,000 in total income to date this cycle. No filing level total with a date was retrieved beyond that report.

Controversies: one documented press criticism from his earlier service: the Arizona Republic ranked Rivero as the third most absent lawmaker in 2018, noted by Arizona Agenda in its primary coverage. No response from Rivero to that ranking was found in the sources retrieved, and no more recent attendance reporting was located. Nothing else of significance was found.

Deborah Howard (Democrat)

Democratic challenger, running a single shot campaign for the second time after her close 2024 loss. A public affairs professional: appointed by President Reagan to serve in the U.S. Department of Labor, later in the national communications office of AARP, with a career across government, nonprofit, and private sector roles in healthcare, defense and trade, education, and electoral politics. A UC Berkeley graduate, a widow, and a cancer survivor, per her Arizona List biography. She lives in the district she describes as home to the Peoria Sports Complex, ASU West, and Midwestern University, with a median age under 40 and roughly a third of residents renting.
  • Stated priorities: lower the cost of living for working families, fully fund public schools and lift Arizona education funding, in her phrase, "out of the basement," protect voting rights, and guarantee affordable healthcare for every Arizonan. Her campaign releases add fixing the state doctor shortage and expanding healthcare access in bipartisan fashion, protecting and expanding the rights of women, minorities, and vulnerable communities, and supporting age appropriate body safety lessons with parent notice and opt out rights, mental health education, and school counselors, in direct contrast to Fink.
  • Her launch statement, quoted: "I'm back in the fight because there is too much at stake. We will only stop the attacks on public education, the environment, health care, and vulnerable communities when we elect people who will stop attacking the government services we want and need."
  • Money: Arizona Agenda reported Howard has raised more than $124,000 so far this cycle, more than either Republican incumbent individually. That fundraising lead, in a district her party does not hold, is the factual core of the sleeper seat argument. Controversies: none found beyond being the named opponent in the Fink dispute printed above.

Verification notes

  • Key vote depth: Payne's execution package is verified from azleg.gov bill summaries, including the Senate third read tally for SB 1751, and from Republic and Senate Republican coverage. No name level roll calls are printed for Fink or Rivero, and party line assumptions were avoided throughout, and the HB 2093 and SB 1372 items in Fink's entry are explicitly attributed to opponent and advocacy coverage rather than presented as azleg.gov verified votes.
  • Money: the House figures are Arizona Agenda's September 2026 summary of reports to date (Howard more than $124,000, Rivero about $92,000, Fink about $39,000), not filing documents retrieved directly. Clayton's figure is March 2026 See the Money. No Payne total was located. Treat every money figure on this page as dated reporting, not a final cycle total.
  • The 2024 closeness figures (Howard about 3.6 points behind Rivero, 0.6 points behind Gallego in the district) come from Nelson Morgan's analysis as reported by Arizona Agenda; the underlying precinct level calculation was not independently reproduced for this page.
  • Rivero's current committee assignments beyond Appropriations membership in secondary listings, and a response from him to the 2018 absenteeism ranking, could not be verified in the sources retrieved.
  • Registration figures are from the 2026 Arizona General Election Guide. An older district page lists 37.84 percent Republican and 26.58 percent Democratic; the Democratic figure matches, and the guide figures are the current cycle figures printed.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. Write the name exactly and fill the oval.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. In the House race, voting for only one candidate is also allowed and does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.