Arizona's 2nd District: a rural rematch that tightened late

Eli Crane (Republican, incumbent)

Key votes and record items:

• Removing Speaker McCarthy: YES (October 3, 2023). Crane was one of only eight Republicans who voted to vacate the speakership, which passed 216 to 210.
• One Big Beautiful Bill (H.R. 1): YES on initial House passage (May 22, 2025) and on concurring in the Senate amendment (July 3, 2025). This vote is the center of the Democratic attack on him, over the law's Medicaid and SNAP reductions (below).
• SAVE Act: YES (April 10, 2025). SAVE America Act: YES (February 11, 2026). Laken Riley Act: YES (January 2025).
• Housing for the 21st Century Act (H.R. 6644): NO (February 9, 2026), one of only nine no votes on a bill that passed 390 to 9. None of the nine publicly explained their votes in the coverage reviewed; the Nez campaign attacks this vote (below).
• Authored: the Subterranean Border Defense Act, with Democratic Rep. Lou Correa, passed the House 402 to 1 on March 10, 2025. In October 2026, per the Arizona Republic, his first bill was signed into law: a land transfer letting Gila County take ownership of an administrative site near Young, securing a veterans' retreat there.
• Epstein files: Crane cosponsored a July 2025 resolution to release the files and posted "Transparency matters," but after the measure was re-introduced September 2, 2025, he did not sign the discharge petition and was noncommittal to CNN. His office did not return the Arizona Republic's requests for comment (September 9, 2025). His final vote on the later Epstein Files Transparency Act was asserted by a partisan tracker but was not verified for this page (see Verification notes).

Stated priorities: border enforcement first: codify Trump-era border policies, finish the wall, advanced detection technology against fentanyl; ban congressional stock trading; eliminate federal taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security; faster federal recovery aid for rural wildfire communities; opposition to federal green energy projects he argues raise rural utility bills; pro-life and pro-Second Amendment positions.

Money (FEC, as of October 14, 2026): raised $11,904,946, spent $10,873,254, with $1,349,063 on hand, the biggest haul in any Arizona House race this cycle. Outside money followed: the Arizona Republic reported October 24 that the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC had spent about $3 million supporting Crane, with House Freedom Caucus and Club for Growth arms adding about $1 million and $600,000.

Attacks and his answers: the Nez campaign and the DCCC argue his One Big Beautiful Bill vote cut health care and food assistance and puts rural hospitals at risk; KJZZ reporting cited five at-risk rural Arizona hospitals, including Page Hospital, the Little Colorado Medical Center in Winslow, and Cobre Valley Regional in Globe, which is in the district. No Crane campaign rebuttal on the specific hospital figures was found; his campaign spokesperson Greg Smith said October 24: "Congressman Crane is busy delivering for his constituents in rural Arizona. Jonathan Nez is busy chasing checks from Nancy Pelosi's billionaire donors." On residency, critics including a partisan PAC note Crane is associated with Oro Valley, outside the district (his listed hometown in Club for Growth materials); House members must live in the state, not the district, and no Crane response to the charge was found. Crane also declined a Citizens Clean Elections Commission televised debate in September 2026, leaving Nez to appear solo, and his campaign did not respond to multiple interview requests, per the DCCC and the Republic; no explanation for declining the debate was found. The Nez campaign additionally attacks a March 2026 vote on a tribal land homeownership bill; only the February housing vote above was independently confirmed for this page.

Jonathan Nez (Democrat)

The record (tribal government, since he has never held state or federal office): as Navajo Nation president he led the Nation through COVID-19; his administration cites new health care facilities, veterans' housing, added police officers, and roads, water, and electricity extensions. On water, he points to work with the first Trump administration and the Navajo-Utah Water Rights Settlement, with federal recognition of an 81,500 acre-foot right and more than $210 million in infrastructure authorization. He also cites three large solar projects on the Navajo Nation after coal plant closures. The counterweight on the record: Navajo voters judged it in 2022, when, after leading the primary, he lost his re-election runoff to Buu Nygren, 52.68 to 47.32 percent. No Crane campaign ad making that specific argument was found in the sources reviewed.

Stated priorities (his "Warrior Up" agenda): lower household costs for health care, housing, and utilities; protect Arizona water, a "fair share" of the Colorado River and groundwater, and a seat "at the table" for Colorado River talks; federal funds for rural roads, bridges, and long-overdue rural infrastructure; strengthen Washington ethics laws and preserve tribal sovereignty. From his September 10, 2026 Clean Elections forum: full release of the Epstein files with accountability "no matter if they are Democrat or Republican;" billionaires paying "their fair share;" opposition to the SAVE Act and mail voting curbs, which he said would disenfranchise Native elders and women; and fully funding SNAP, with about 25,000 district residents at risk of losing benefits by his voter guide answer.

Money (FEC, as of October 14, 2026): raised $5,805,341, spent $5,364,572, with $506,072 on hand, roughly four times his 2024 total, though Crane still leads on receipts by about two to one.

Attacks and his answers: the main Republican attack arrived in October, when the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC's television ad called Nez "backed by liberal politicians" and "pushing higher taxes" and said "Arizona can't afford Jonathan Nez," but used photos of Myron Lizer, Nez's former vice president and a Republican, twice. The PAC's strategist told the Republic the ad was no longer airing, and secondary reporting says the PAC acknowledged and corrected it; the ad was an independent effort, not authorized by Crane's campaign. Nez's response, in a written statement quoted by the Republic: "Eli Crane and his billionaire backers are so scared of an Indigenous sheepherder from Shonto, Arizona, they rushed a $700k ad against me. But they care so little about the voters of AZ-02 they couldn't get it right… I guess they don't care to know my face, but on November 3rd they'll hear my voice." No specific Nez tax proposal or vote substantiating the ad's "pushing higher taxes" claim was found in coverage of the ad (see Verification notes). His campaign has also run an Epstein files attack tying Crane to donations from Frederic Fekkai; that donor framing is a campaign allegation, not a verified finding, and is presented here only as the campaign's claim.

Curtis Goodwin (Libertarian)

Stated priorities (his Candidate Connection survey and voter guide answers, in his words): Individual Freedom: "Your life belongs to you, not the government." Limited Government, Strong Communities: "The solutions to local problems are found closest to home." Fiscal Responsibility: "Washington doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem." Per FOX 10's summary of his answers: opposes unnecessary federal intervention in emerging technology and AI; opposes federalizing election laws; supports strictly enforced legal immigration pathways and aggressive penalties for human and drug trafficking; supports expanded school choice; supports measured federal anti-discrimination protections that respect personal freedoms.

Money: no FEC filing was found. Ballotpedia's FEC table lists Goodwin at $0 receipts, $0 disbursements, and $0 cash on hand with "Data not available," footnoted that the candidate either did not report receipts or disbursements or no FEC candidate ID was found; a candidate tracker likewise notes no FEC filing over $5,000. Federal candidates are generally not required to register or report until they raise or spend $5,000, so the accurate statement is: as of the October 14, 2026 reporting, there is no FEC record of Goodwin raising or spending reportable money.

Attacks and coverage: none found in any source reviewed. He has drawn no reported attacks from either major campaign, which is itself the finding.

What the forecasters say

Cook Political Report moved this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on October 22 to 23, 2026, reported by the Arizona Republic on October 24; Ballotpedia's weekly ratings table still showed Cook at Likely Republican through its October 20 review, so treat Lean R as the later data point. Inside Elections: Likely Republican. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican. Decision Desk HQ: Likely Republican. The Economist: Lean R. Split Ticket, the outlier, calls it a Toss-up. Published polls disagree with each other: Peak Insights (August 17 to 20, 400 likely voters) had Crane 53, Nez 42; a GBAO poll for the Nez campaign (August 21 to 24) had Crane 46, Nez 44; an Emerson College poll completed October 14 had Nez 50, Crane 48. No poll of Goodwin's share was found. The structural story: an R+7 district, a nine-point incumbent win in 2024, and a challenger who raised enough to make the closing weeks genuinely contested.