Ballot Math / U.S. House / AZ-09
Candidate race: U.S. House of Representatives

Arizona's 9th District: Gosar's ninth term, and the questions around it

November 3, 2026 general election. The district is western Arizona: all of La Paz County, most of Mohave County (Kingman, Lake Havasu City, Bullhead City), most of Yuma County (with the city of Yuma split with the 7th District), and the western part of Maricopa County. The Maricopa communities are Aguila, Arlington, Buckeye, Circle City, Citrus Park, El Mirage, Litchfield Park, Morristown, Tonopah, Wickenburg, Wittmann, and Youngtown, plus parts of Glendale, Goodyear, and Surprise: the West Valley farm and exurban belt. Central Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, and Scottsdale are not in this district. Note the history trap: the pre-2023 AZ-09 was an entirely different Phoenix and Tempe district; the current one is the redrawn western district. Registration runs about 44 percent Republican, 20 percent Democratic, 35 percent other. Two names are printed on the ballot: Paul Gosar (R, incumbent) and Danielle "Dani" Sterbinsky (D). Two independents, G. Seville Hatch and William Perry, are official write-in candidates only; their names are not printed, and a vote counts only if written in. Cook rates the district R+15, the most Republican in Arizona; Donald Trump carried it 65.1 to 34.0 percent in 2024.
How they got here: both major party primaries were uncontested. Gosar, first elected in 2010 and seeking a ninth term, took 79,336 Republican primary votes on July 21; Sterbinsky took 35,700 Democratic primary votes, a first-time candidate running unopposed for the nomination. The 100 percent figures mean "unopposed," and the vote total gap reflects the two parties' different primary electorates in an R+15 district, not a head-to-head result. One announced challenge never arrived: Lisa Schaefer, a systems engineer and self-described anti-MAGA Republican, publicly launched a primary challenge to Gosar and then does not appear in the official results; no source located states whether she withdrew, failed to file, or failed to gather signatures (see Verification notes).

Paul Gosar (Republican, incumbent)

First elected to Congress in 2010, in office since January 3, 2011, with no prior political experience. Before Congress he was a practicing dentist who owned his practice in Flagstaff for 25 years (official House biography). Creighton University (BS 1981, DDS 1985). Wife Maude; three children. District path: represented the 1st District, then the 4th, then this 9th from January 3, 2023 after redistricting; re-elected here in 2022 (unopposed on the ballot, 97.8 percent against write-ins) and in 2024 with 65.3 percent. Term count note: the Arizona Republic consistently calls him an eight-term congressman running for a ninth, which matches his election history; his own House biography page says "seventh term" and appears not to have been updated (see Verification notes). Committees: Natural Resources, where he chairs the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, and Oversight and Government Reform; former chairman of the Congressional Western Caucus; Freedom Caucus member. His district office is in Goodyear. Endorsements: President Trump (including in Trump's October 22, 2026 Arizona slate), the NRA Political Victory Fund with an "A" rating, the Freedom Caucus Fund, Turning Point Action, and the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste, which cited a 93 percent lifetime rating in its own scoring.

Key votes and record items:

  • One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1): YES on passage (May 22, 2025) and on concurring in the Senate amendment (July 3, 2025). His statement: "I am very pleased to have voted in favor of legislation advancing President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill," citing border security, ending taxes on tips and overtime, and Medicaid changes. A district-specific credit he claims: the enacted bill included his legislation reauthorizing the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act and extending it to parts of Mohave County "Downwinders" previously excluded (his July 6, 2025 newsletter; the credit claim is his).
  • Secure America Act: YES (June 9, 2026), the reconciliation package funding ICE and Border Patrol (about $70 billion, through 2029 per the Republic), which passed 214 to 212; all six Arizona Republicans voted yes and the state's three Democrats no. His newsletter: "I voted in favor of the Secure America Act, legislation that fully funds Border Patrol, ICE, and critical border security operations through 2029."
  • SAVE Act (H.R. 22): YES (April 10, 2025). His statement, via a summary of his release: "American elections should be for American citizens only... It's not racist, it's common sense: prove your citizenship, or you can't vote." Laken Riley Act: YES on both the House bill and the Senate version (January 2025).
  • 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act: DID NOT VOTE (June 23, 2026). Do not read this as a no. The House passed it 358 to 32; per the Arizona Republic (June 24, 2026), Gosar said the miss was an error caused by a technical malfunction in his voting equipment and that he supports the legislation. The three Arizona Republican no votes were Schweikert, Biggs, and Crane. A different, earlier housing vote found in a partisan-leaning digest lists Gosar among nine no votes; the bill, date, and roll call could not be cleanly verified, and the two votes are not merged here (see Verification notes).
  • FISA Section 702: in his June 14, 2026 newsletter, Gosar wrote that he "once again voted against extending Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) without meaningful reforms to protect the constitutional rights of American citizens." That is his characterization and vote claim; the newsletter does not name the bill or roll call.
  • Surprise ICE facility (a district issue, not a vote): after DHS bought a 418,400 square foot warehouse in Surprise for over $70 million to convert into a roughly 1,500-bed ICE processing facility (first reported by the Republic January 29, 2026), Gosar, who had not been informed in advance, sent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem a February 4, 2026 letter with 15 questions about consultation, community safety, operations, funding, and communication. His stated position: he "strongly" supported ICE and immigration enforcement, but the concerns were "common-sense expectations of transparency, planning, and accountability." DHS replied that the site was under consideration as a 500 to 1,500 bed intake and short-term transfer facility with average stays of 3 to 7 days; Gosar publicly thanked Noem for the "prompt, direct, and transparent response."
  • La Paz County land bill: his H.R. 1043, conveying 3,400 acres of BLM land to La Paz County for solar energy and jobs, passed the Senate; he issued a statement lauding Senate passage on December 17, 2025.
  • January 6, 2021: Gosar and Sen. Ted Cruz led the objection to counting Arizona's electoral votes, the first objection of that joint session, advocating an emergency 10-day audit. The House rejected the objection 303 to 121 and the Senate 93 to 6, after the Capitol attack interrupted the session.

Stated priorities: fighting illegal immigration and securing the border; holding government accountable and cutting wasteful spending; federal spending cuts and a balanced budget amendment; domestic energy development; lower taxes; opposition to a national gun registry and to legislation he considers infringements on gun rights; veterans' mental health and suicide prevention, reducing VA claims and appeals backlogs, and VA accountability; support for Arizona agriculture; returning education to the local level; expanding transportation; wildfire prevention. His House biography summarizes his focus as policies for "more individual liberty and less government involvement." On the NRA endorsement, quoted by AZ Free News: "I have never wavered on the Second Amendment. Our right to keep and bear arms is not negotiable, and I have voted that way every single time."

Money (FEC): as of September 30, 2026: raised $764,144, spent $536,769, cash on hand $318,972. As of July 1, 2026: $580,043 raised, $368,426 spent, $303,214 on hand. A later partial update from FEC filings dated October 14, 2026 lists $813,542 raised and $654,753 disbursed, with no cash figure stated. Context from the Republic (July 5, 2026): at the end of March 2026 Gosar had about $173,000 in the bank, the least cash on hand of any Arizona House member running for re-election, which the Republic notes likely does not matter in this district. Figures are FEC data as compiled by Wikipedia and The Green Papers and cross-checked against AZ Free News to the cent for July 1 (see Verification notes).

Attacks and his answers: the dominant 2026 story is his health. After an April 2026 speech at a Trump rally hosted by Turning Point at Dream City Church in Phoenix, where the Republic reported his head appeared to swivel and he struggled to deliver his remarks, questions resurfaced. Former Rep. Matt Salmon encouraged him to be transparent; Rep. Greg Stanton said he was praying Gosar is healthy. His side: spokesman Anthony Foti said June 25, 2026 that Gosar is "healthy as a horse," that he is dealing with "lingering nerve pain," and that he has put off surgery for a torn rotator cuff because of his job's demands. Gosar declined a Republic interview, and his spokesman declined to answer whether he had been tested for Parkinson's or other neurological conditions. His earlier explanations: in 2015 he attributed hand spasms to arthritis and two compressed vertebrae causing nerve issues, plus hip replacement complications; in 2020 he said he did not have any neural disorders such as Parkinson's, and that he had had two back surgeries and a hip surgery. His sister Jennifer Gosar, who is politically opposed to him, has said she believed his physical and cognitive abilities were declining. No diagnosis of any kind is verified; this page presents questions raised and answers given, not a medical finding. Second, missed votes: a GovTrack tally cited by the Republic has Gosar missing 5.9 percent of roll call votes in his tenure (541 of 9,127), the worst lifetime record of any Arizonan currently in the House and more than double the 2.1 percent median. Sterbinsky attacked this at the August 27 forum: "When your representative doesn't show up, that means your voice isn't heard." Foti did not acknowledge the comparison and called Gosar's "one of the strongest voting records in Congress," adding, "Everything else is little more than political gossip dressed up as journalism." Third, debates and access: Gosar declined the Clean Elections Commission invitation to the August 27, 2026 forum, leaving Sterbinsky a solo stage. His campaign's response, via consultant Rory McShane to the Republic: "We don't debate socialists. We beat them." The Republic also reports his most recent in-person town hall was in June 2016, per his congressional website, and that he holds few public events. Fourth, the historical items opponents still cite: on November 17, 2021 the House voted 223 to 207 to censure him and remove him from the Natural Resources and Oversight committees after he posted, then deleted, an anime-style video depicting him killing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and attacking President Biden. His response at the time: he defended the video on the House floor, said "no threat was intended," did not apologize, said it symbolized disagreement with Biden immigration policy, and, per NPR, retweeted the video about an hour after being censured. Republicans restored his committee seats in 2023, and he now chairs a Natural Resources subcommittee. For two older items, his response was not located in the sources reviewed, and none is invented here: the February 2022 criticism from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over his participation in the AFPAC conference, and a September 2023 email in which he called Gen. Mark Milley a "quisling" and "sodomy-promoting" and wrote that "in a better society [...] General Milley would be hung" (per his compiled biography).

Danielle "Dani" Sterbinsky (Democrat)

Ballot name: Sterbinsky, Danielle "Dani" (one AP primary-night summary misspelled it "Sterbinksy;" the correct spelling is Sterbinsky). U.S. Navy veteran: per her campaign site, Petty Officer Sterbinsky served aboard USS Bainbridge, a destroyer, in the Mediterranean Sea as an Operations Specialist. Education: bachelor's in social sciences, University of Hawaii; master's in industrial-organizational psychology, Grand Canyon University. Occupation: certified human resources professional. She lives in Wittmann, an unincorporated community in the Maricopa County part of this district, with her husband Phillip, also a Navy veteran, and their daughter Flora; she describes herself as a working mom who has "lived the struggle, worked paycheck to paycheck." Per the Forward Party's October 2026 endorsement announcement, she serves on the Personnel Appeals Board in Surprise and is a precinct committee member in her legislative district. This is her first run for office; she has held no elected office. Endorsements: the Forward Party (national, October 2026), whose CEO Lindsey Drath said she and another endorsed Democrat "want to put their constituents ahead of their party," and, per a voter guide citing Ballotpedia, State Sen. Catherine Miranda and State Rep. Mariana Sandoval (lower confidence; see Verification notes). No endorsement from national Democratic House campaign organs was located, and the race is not on competitive-race lists.

The record: as a first-time candidate she has no voting record. Her public record is her Navy service, her HR career, the Surprise board service, and her campaign statements, including the August 27, 2026 Clean Elections solo forum (Gosar declined to attend), where, per the Republic, she criticized the war with Iran and its toll on service members, citing reports of declining mental health and poor living conditions aboard USS Abraham Lincoln, and argued Congress, not the executive, holds the constitutional authority to declare war: "We do need to have a serious conversation about the financial implications of this war, what it's costing us to be there, what it's costing service members in their health." She proposed regulating pharmacy benefit managers and cracking down on institutional home buyers to lower health care and housing costs, attacked Gosar's missed votes (above), and attacked his closeness to President Trump: "I believe that we have to choose someone who serves the people. That is who we are supposed to serve, not the executive branch." Forward states she does not accept PAC money; that claim is Forward's and was not independently verified against her FEC reports in this research.

Stated priorities (campaign site, under three headings): "We the People:" a "We the People Amendment" overturning Citizens United, ending corporate personhood, and declaring money is not speech. "Affordability:" down-payment support for first-time buyers and rental assistance; lower childcare costs; lower health care costs (lower prescription costs, cut waste and middlemen, offer a public option); raise the federal minimum wage; support small businesses and gig workers; break up corporate consolidation and crack down on algorithmic price fixing. "Country Living:" expand rural broadband; protect water resources supporting families and agriculture; partner with Native communities respecting sovereignty; invest in rural infrastructure and development grants. Veterans: expand rural VA services, improve health and mental health services, reduce disability claims backlogs (per FOX 10's summary of her site). Her ActBlue page summarizes her pitch: "put hardworking families first, fight for equity in education, and create good-paying jobs."

Money (FEC): as of September 30, 2026: raised $437,021, spent $411,224, cash on hand $29,475. As of July 1, 2026: $354,383 raised, $332,316 spent, $25,745 on hand. A later partial update from FEC filings dated October 14 lists $461,875 raised and $431,927 disbursed, with no cash figure. The pattern worth one factual line: in both full reports she had spent nearly everything she raised, ending each period with under $30,000 on hand, against Gosar's $303,214 (July 1) and $318,972 (September 30).

Attacks and her answers: no personal scandal, ethics issue, or factual controversy about Sterbinsky was located in any source searched, and this page states that plainly rather than manufacturing balance. The only direct attack from the Gosar side located is the "socialist" label in the debate-refusal quote above; no direct Sterbinsky response to that specific quote was located, and her general response at the August 27 forum was to present her platform solo and argue voters should choose "someone who serves the people," not the executive branch. The structural criticism, from the Republic: she "is seen as having slim odds of winning the Nov. 3 election because the district's voter-registration numbers heavily favor Republicans."

G. Seville Hatch and William Perry (Independent write-ins, not printed on the ballot)

Both are listed as Independent write-ins for this district on the Secretary of State's official write-in list (revised September 9, 2026) and Mohave County's official list. A vote for either counts only if the name is written in. Money, both: no FEC filing was located for either. Neither has an FEC candidate ID in The Green Papers' Arizona listing, which gives IDs for Gosar and Sterbinsky only. Candidates who raise or spend $5,000 or less are not required to file.

Hatch: per Ballotpedia as summarized by FOX 10, a write-in candidate "from Dallas, Texas" with experience working as an engineer; FOX 10 reports he currently resides in Tempe. Tempe is not in this district, but House candidates must live in the state, not the district. His candidate statement, filed with the Secretary of State and summarized by FOX 10, describes work analyzing satellite communications and electronic media industries since 1990, and describes him as an entrepreneur, consultant, public speaker, CEO, analyst, investor, and "Satellite/Broadcast/Space/Intelligence encryption innovator" who has addressed international conferences and served on industry boards. He was also a write-in candidate in the 2025 AZ-07 special election, listed there as a Republican, where he received 3 write-in votes; in 2026 the Secretary of State lists him as Independent, a label inconsistency flagged, not resolved. His biography rests on a single secondary source and was not independently corroborated. Stated priorities: none located. No campaign platform, issues page, endorsements, controversies, or campaign events were found beyond the professional biography in his candidate statement.

Perry: a Bullhead City resident, in the Mohave County part of the district, per his Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey as summarized by FOX 10. Everything else about him is his own description, presented here only as that: he describes himself as "a former federal boat captain, a 100% disabled Marine Corps veteran, a master scuba diver, and a man who survived fifty years of homelessness." None of those elements was independently verified in this research. Stated priorities, per FOX 10's summary of his survey: get rid of the VA; bring back food and rental assistance; get rid of the Electoral College; set term limits for every person in government. His material emphasizes "stability, dignity, and practical solutions." No record, endorsements, or controversies were located; his campaign presence found online is the Secretary of State candidate statement, the Ballotpedia survey, and his YouTube channel.

What the forecasters say

Unanimous at the safest tier: Cook Political Report Solid R, Inside Elections Solid R, Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R, Decision Desk HQ Safe R, The Economist Safe R, Silver Bulletin Solid R. No forecaster located rates the race competitive, and no public polling of this race was located at all; any "chance of winning" percentage for it would be model output, not polling. One forecast site's claim that Kamala Harris won this district in 2024 is contradicted by the district-level calculation reproduced by Ballotpedia (Trump 65.1, Harris 34.0) and by the district's own 2024 House result, and is not used (see Verification notes). The structural story: the most Republican district in Arizona, an incumbent who won it by 30 points in 2024, a challenger with under $30,000 in the bank in the last full report, and a general election whose real contest was settled, if it was ever in doubt, by the registration numbers; the open questions are about the incumbent's health disclosures and attendance, not about the partisan outcome.

Verification notes

  • Pollsmax's AZ-09 forecast page states that "in 2024, Kamala Harris won Arizona's 9th congressional district by 2.5%." That is wrong on the evidence: The Downballot's district-level calculation (Trump 65.1, Harris 34.0), reproduced by Ballotpedia and the district page, and Gosar's own 65.3 percent House result contradict it. Pollsmax is not cited for anything on this page. No public polling of this race was located at all.
  • Gosar's term count conflicts between sources: his House biography (and FOX 10 repeating it) says "seventh term;" the Arizona Republic says eight-term, running for a ninth, which matches his election history (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024). The House bio page appears stale, and the Republic's count is used. His residence city is also inconsistently reported (Bullhead City in one compiled source, Buckeye in a syndicated story); his district office is in Goodyear, and no residence city is stated on this page.
  • Two housing votes are easy to conflate and are kept separate here: the verified June 23, 2026 ROAD to Housing Act non-vote, with Gosar's equipment explanation and stated support (Republic), and an earlier 390 to 9 housing vote listing Gosar among nine no votes, found only in a partisan-leaning digest with no bill number or date confirmed. Only the first is in his record list.
  • Health coverage limits: all 2026 health reporting located comes from the Arizona Republic's two July 2026 articles. Gosar declined to be interviewed and his office declined to answer specific questions, including about neurological testing. There is no verified diagnosis, and no second newsroom's independent reporting was located. Gosar responses were likewise not located for two historical items (the 2022 AFPAC criticism and the 2023 Milley email); no response is published for either.
  • Lisa Schaefer's exit is unexplained: she announced a Republican primary challenge and does not appear in the primary results. No source located states whether she withdrew, failed to file, or failed to gather signatures. A Substack urging voters to write in a different name for this district is not the Secretary of State's official write-in list, and that name is not an official write-in candidate; only Hatch and Perry are.
  • Sterbinsky details with thinner sourcing: the Surprise Personnel Appeals Board seat and precinct committee role come from the Forward Party's endorsement announcement, a supportive source; the Miranda and Sandoval endorsements and a congressional term limits position come via a voter guide citing Ballotpedia, not from a primary announcement located in this research. Her no-PAC-money claim is Forward's statement, not checked line by line against her FEC reports here.
  • FEC figures are compilations of FEC data (Wikipedia, The Green Papers), cross-checked against AZ Free News's FEC summary to the cent for July 1 for both candidates. The October 14 partial figures state no cash on hand, and none is derived by subtraction, because that ignores beginning cash. Hatch's biography is single-sourced and his party label differs between the 2025 (Republican) and 2026 (Independent) official listings; Perry's biography is entirely self-reported, as labeled in his section.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Every candidate in this race got the same template: offices and record, money with dates, stated priorities, and controversies with responses.