Ballot Math / U.S. House / AZ-05

Candidate race: U.S. House of Representatives

Arizona's 5th District: the open seat Andy Biggs left behind

November 3, 2026 general election. The district covers parts of Gilbert, Queen Creek, Chandler, Mesa, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction. Biggs held it from 2017 and left to run for governor (see his candidate page). Only two names are on the general election ballot: Mark Lamb (R) and Elizabeth Lee (D). Every major forecaster rates the seat Solid or Safe Republican; the district voted about 64 percent for Donald Trump in 2024.

How they got here: Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff, won the July 21 Republican primary with 58.7 percent over Chandler construction owner Daniel Keenan, who put over $1.5 million of his own money into the race and out-raised Lamb before losing. Lamb carried the endorsements that mattered in that primary: President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Reps. Eli Crane and Paul Gosar. Lee, a Gilbert nurse running her first campaign for any office, won the Democratic primary with 66 percent. There is no Libertarian, Green, or independent candidate in this race.

Mark Lamb (Republican)

Born 1972 in Hilo, Hawaii; raised in Chandler (Chandler High School, class of 1990); lives in San Tan Valley with his wife Janel and their five children. Police officer and detective (Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community PD), then Pinal County deputy, then Sheriff of Pinal County from January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2024. Also owned a pest control business before law enforcement. Ran for U.S. Senate in 2024 and lost the Republican primary to Kari Lake, 55 to 40 percent.

The record (a sheriff holds executive office, so his record is actions, not votes):

  • COVID enforcement refusal (2020): refused to enforce Gov. Ducey's stay-at-home order, calling it unconstitutional; his deputies would "educate and advise" rather than arrest. This made him a national figure on the right.
  • Citizen posse (2020): oversaw a plan to deputize armed citizen "posse" members during the protests following George Floyd's murder.
  • "Constitutional sheriff" philosophy: spoke at the 2020 convention of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association, whose position is that sheriffs need not enforce laws they judge unconstitutional, and has expressed support for sheriffs shielding citizens from government overreach.
  • 2020 election, both directions: testified before Congress that he had no evidence of voter fraud in his jurisdiction, later clarified he meant Pinal County only, and then became involved in a ballot-box surveillance effort ahead of the 2022 midterms. His primary opponent later attacked him from the right over the testimony ("Mark Lamb was a coward on the 2020 election").
  • Border profile: made cartels, fentanyl, human smuggling, and border enforcement the centerpiece of his tenure and his national media brand ("America's Sheriff"), and launched a subscription streaming service, the American Sheriff Network, plus a self-published book in 2021. Earlier, as a Salt River PD detective, he was a lead detective on a multi-agency federal RICO case that dismantled a violent East Valley gang.

Stated priorities: codify President Trump's border policies into law so future administrations cannot reverse them; enforce existing immigration laws and keep fighting cartels and trafficking; lower taxes and costs and support small business; attack the national debt through "fiscal discipline"; and a broader "faith, family, freedom" platform, calling for a "national revival of faith, family, freedom."

Money (FEC, as of October 14, 2026): raised $1,771,671, spent $1,590,920, $180,751 on hand. Outside groups spent about $348,000 supporting him, led by the Club for Growth-aligned Win It Back PAC (about $251,000). No outside money was spent against either candidate in the general election data.

The investigation, and his response: during the primary, the Arizona Republic published a multipart investigation reporting that multiple women accused Lamb of sending sexually explicit messages and nude photos and of using threats and intimidation to keep them quiet; one woman said he threatened her with felony revenge-porn charges if she posted about their relationship. The Republic reported the messages are Pinal County public records independently verified by the Republic and KTAR News. It also reported, from screenshots, that when a border extremist messaged Lamb a racial slur, Lamb replied with a racist joke about Black people. A former friend and police partner described being introduced by Lamb in 2015 to a sexually charged "lifestyle" involving Lamb's wife. One woman said leaders of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints examined her complaint about Lamb and suppressed it; that is her account as reported, not an adjudicated finding. Lamb's response: he has called the allegations "lies" and "false," his campaign's lawyers called many claims "baseless and harmful," and neither he nor the campaign has denied or engaged any specific claim; he declined the Republic's interview requests, and his wife wrote on Facebook that they were targets of a "massive smear campaign." The Pinal County Attorney's Office closed a review in June 2026 finding "no evidence that Lamb acted in a criminal manner," while the Republic reported the review was limited and did not address the specific claims. President Trump reaffirmed his endorsement in July. His defeated primary opponent ran ads calling the allegations "disqualifying" and Lamb "a disgrace, an embarrassment, and unfit for office," and some Republicans urged Lamb to drop out. He won the primary by 17 points anyway.

Two other reported issues: in spring 2026 Lamb bought a roughly $3 million ranch compound in Michie, Tennessee, about 1,500 miles from the district, part guest-ranch business and part family compound, financed partly by a $2 million loan tied to a Queen Creek couple who support his campaign. He explained the venture was meant to make up for the "financial blow" of serving in Congress and has offered little further explanation, per the Republic; both opponents attacked his commitment to the district. (Members of Congress must live in the state, not the district; Lamb's home is in San Tan Valley.) He also declined the publicly funded general-election debate on August 26, leaving Lee alone on stage. His spokesman declined to comment on why.

Elizabeth Lee (Democrat)

Of Gilbert. A registered nurse (board certified in reproductive health and infertility nursing) and board certified patient advocate with more than a decade in fertility medicine. Political newcomer: she has never held office and this is her first campaign. She refuses corporate PAC money. Endorsed by Attorney General Kris Mayes, IBEW Local 640, and Reproductive Freedom for All, among others. (One national outlet's primary-night story called her "Jennifer Lee"; her name is Elizabeth Lee, per the certified results.)

The record: there is no voting record, because she has never held office. Her public record is professional and personal: she helped patients navigate infertility, pregnancy and infant loss, complex diagnoses, and insurance denials, and worked with fertility clinics on financial access to care. She is the first member of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine to run for Congress, and founded a patient-education organization, The Empowered Choice Coalition, in 2024. She campaigns on her family's story: a first-generation college graduate from a working-class union family whose mother died after an insurer denied coverage for the cancer treatment her doctors recommended, and who, after years of an undiagnosed illness, identified her own genetic connective tissue disorder after becoming a nurse.

Stated priorities, in her words where quoted: healthcare as a right ("healthcare is not a privilege but a human right... no child denied care and no family bankrupted for the right to live"); she supports building a Medicare for All program within five years and describes herself as a progressive. Also: tax breaks for working families against "special interests and billionaires," protecting SNAP and the VA; curbing corporations and private equity firms buying up homes to "make housing affordable again"; fully funding public schools ("Public dollars belong in public schools," opposing subsidies for private schools that "face no transparency or accountability"); and expanding insurance coverage for reproductive care including fertility treatment, her specialty.

Money (FEC, as of October 14, 2026): raised $375,628, spent $251,492, $124,136 on hand. Lamb has raised roughly 4.7 times her total. No outside-group spending for or against her appeared in the compiled FEC data.

Attacks and counterattacks: no major-outlet reporting of misconduct by Lee surfaced in our research; the contest over her candidacy is ideological. Her own attacks on Lamb center on the Tennessee ranch ("He wants us to believe that the American Dream is a $3 million dollar ranch, 1,500 miles away from here... People are worried about how to get a first house") and on his absence from debates, where she quoted Lamb's own 2024 Senate-primary words back at him: "If those other folks aren't here tonight, you can't expect them to show up for you in D.C." Lamb's campaign has largely declined to engage her directly. The structural case against her, as race coverage frames it, is fit: a self-described progressive running on Medicare for All in a district that voted about 64 percent for Trump in 2024 and gave Biggs 60.4 percent that year.

What the forecasters say

Cook Political Report: Solid Republican. Inside Elections: Solid Republican. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican. Decision Desk HQ: Likely Republican. District composite (Dave's Redistricting): about 58.5 percent Republican to 39.6 percent Democratic. None of that decides anything; it tells you the shape of the race you are voting in, an open seat in a safe district where the primary was the competitive election and the general election is the ratification, unless the investigation coverage moves voters it has not moved yet.

Verification notes

  • The district's 2024 presidential margin is reported two ways: Dave's Redistricting's percentages (Trump 63.9, Harris 34.8) imply about a 29-point margin, while some coverage rounds it to "roughly 20 points." This page prints the sourced percentages and does not reconcile the two.
  • Primary shares are the certified Secretary of State figures via Ballotpedia (Lamb 58.7, Lee 66.0); late-count media tallies differed trivially.
  • Two claims circulating in advocacy outlets were NOT printed above because they lack major-outlet sourcing: Lee's reported positions on Gaza and arms embargoes, and both candidates' reported positions on Flock license plate readers. They may be true; they are not verified to this site's standard.
  • Lee's age is not reported in the major coverage we reviewed, so it is omitted rather than guessed.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it. If your signature is questioned, the county will try to reach you.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed and does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Both candidates got the same template: offices and record, money with dates, stated priorities, and controversies with responses. Back to Ballot Math home.