Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD25
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 25

LD25: a Yuma to Buckeye district where the incumbents start far ahead

November 3, 2026 general election. District 25 covers parts of two counties, Maricopa County and Yuma County: Buckeye, Waddell, parts of Surprise and the far West Valley in Maricopa County, extending west and south to Yuma and northern Yuma County, about 243,005 people. Registration in the 2026 general election guide: 42.34 percent Republican, 21.22 percent Democratic, 36.44 percent other. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission placed the district outside its competitive range, azcentral reports a key election vote spread of Republican plus 25.7 percent, and the 2024 presidential vote in the district was Republican plus 29.4 points. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races. Note on geography: this is not a Mesa district. LD25 is the Buckeye and Yuma district.

State Senate: Dunn vs. Huber

The structural fact: this race is contested on paper and heavily tilted in practice. Sen. Tim Dunn (R) was unopposed in the 2024 general election, both nominees won their 2026 primaries unopposed, and the district leans Republican by roughly 26 to 29 points on the measures above. Laura Huber (D) would need a swing far beyond anything the district has recently produced. This page says that plainly rather than pretending the race is a tossup, and it still covers both candidates in full, because down ballot turnout and the size of the margin are the live questions here.

Timothy "Tim" Dunn (Republican, incumbent)

LD25 state senator since January 13, 2025. A Yuma grain farmer and lifelong district resident; owner with his wife Eileen of Dunn Farms, Dunn Grain Co., Upstream Development Co., and Sport Clips franchise stores in Yuma, Buckeye, and Goodyear. University of Arizona degree in agriculture (agronomy). First appointed to the Arizona House in February 2018 to replace expelled Rep. Don Shooter in the old District 13, then served in the House through January 2025, including District 25 from 2023. In the Senate he is vice chair of the Natural Resources committee and sits on Education and Military Affairs and Border Security, per azcentral. He won his 2026 Republican primary unopposed with 22,443 votes.

Record, from reputable coverage: Dunn has stuck to a conservative, business oriented platform, per azcentral. On water, the defining issue for a farming district, he has argued that data centers help support state economic growth, and he pushed for a bill, later vetoed by Gov. Katie Hobbs, that would have allowed developers to build in areas with groundwater restrictions using water originally intended for farms. Earlier in his career he proposed a pipeline transferring water from the Mississippi River to the Colorado River. In 2026 the Arizona Cotton Growers Association gave him its J.S. Francis Jr. Distinguished Public Service Award, citing his work to protect agricultural water rights and limit regulatory overreach, and in that coverage he urged growers to make every drop count ahead of Colorado River cuts and the new Ranegras Plain Active Management Area.

Key votes note: no individual Senate roll call votes for Dunn were verified at name level from azleg.gov in the sources retrieved for this page, so none are printed as key votes. That is a gap in this page, admitted here and in the verification notes, not a gap filled by guessing party line votes.

Stated priorities: securing the water future through conservation, efficiency, and new technology; border security, including his past claim of voting for more than $544 million in additional border funding as a representative; fighting efforts to limit gun rights; school choice with local school board and parent control; and support for veterans.

Money: no campaign finance total for Dunn was located in the March 2026 See the Money table reproduced for this race or in other records retrieved as of October 26, 2026. The absence is reported, not estimated.

Controversies: none of significance found in the sources retrieved. The vetoed groundwater bill is a policy dispute with the governor, reported above as such, not a scandal.

Laura Huber (Democrat)

Licensed Professional Counselor (mental health counselor) and a Clean Elections participating candidate, which means public financing after qualifying contributions and no corporate or PAC money, per her campaign FAQ. Daughter of a farmer and a wildlife manager; she describes five generations of farmers and ranchers in her family and growing up on wildlife refuges. She won her Democratic primary unopposed with 11,377 votes. This is her run for the Senate seat; no prior elected office was found in the sources retrieved.
  • Stated priorities, from her campaign site: water security, meaning protect the water the district has, develop responsible new supplies, and do not let growth come at the expense of farms, communities, or future generations; in Yuma coverage she called for stronger groundwater regulations while making sure Yuma farmers have the water they need. Education: adequate funding, safe learning environments, competitive teacher compensation, and the tools teachers need. Healthcare: expand access to care, maternal and mental health services, telehealth, and pandemic preparedness. Environmental protection through conservation and sustainable growth. On abortion, her FAQ frames a pro choice position as protecting individual healthcare decisions.
  • Endorsements, attributed: Equality Arizona, the Sierra Club campaign wing, and the Arizona College Democrats, per azcentral.
  • Money: as of campaign finance reports in March 2026, raised $7,066.39, spent $5,060.51, $543.77 on hand (See the Money, via the Senate election summary). That date is part of the fact. Her later Clean Elections funding was not retrieved, and her totals will have changed since March.
  • Controversies: none found.

State House: two seats, three candidates, two Republican incumbents

How this race works: vote for up to two. The two Republican incumbents, House Majority Leader Michael Carbone and Rep. Nick Kupper, face one Democrat, Tiffany Byrne. Byrne takes a seat only by finishing in the top two, which means outpolling at least one incumbent in a district that leans Republican by about 26 points. Democrats are running a single candidate, so a Byrne voter who uses only one of the two House votes does not help either Republican; that arithmetic is the whole strategy available to her.

Michael Carbone (Republican, incumbent)

LD25 state representative since January 9, 2023, and House Majority Leader since January 2025, elected by his Republican caucus. Buckeye resident, small business owner and president of the Carbone Group since 2003. Born in Antioch, Illinois, in February 1973; raised by his grandparents. MPA from Grand Canyon University (2016) and a bachelor degree in graphic design and advertising from Columbia College Chicago. He and running mate Tim Dunn won the 2022 Republican primary over incumbent Rep. Joel John and were unchallenged in that general election.

Record: as majority leader, Carbone has been one of the Republican lead budget negotiators, pushing a plan that included eliminating subsidies for renewable energy projects and an across the board cut in funding for state agencies, and he has supported cuts to food assistance over concerns about misspending, per azcentral. In 2024 he sponsored legislation to ban no excuse early voting in Arizona, a system Arizona Republicans created in 1991, per Arizona Mirror reporting. His 2025 sponsorships covered energy, housing, employment, and election policy, including streamlining permitting for small modular nuclear reactors near data centers, statewide standards for accessory dwelling units, unemployment benefit changes, healthcare eligibility oversight, and electioneering rules, per his WASRG Inside the Dome speaker profile. In February 2026 he was the House sponsor associated with HB 2918, a bill to end property tax breaks and ratepayer subsidies for new utility scale renewable projects while grandfathering existing projects, framed by supporters as affordability and fairness.

Stated priorities: border enforcement and finishing the wall, no taxpayer funded benefits for people here illegally, protecting military bases and veterans on fixed incomes, fighting for district water rights, and maintaining what he calls a 100 percent voting record on Second Amendment rights.

Money: TransparencyUSA lists Carbone with $112,581.41 in contributions and $15,139.53 in expenditures for this race, retrieved October 2026. TransparencyUSA does not print a clean as of date on the race page retrieved, so treat the figures as the latest listing found, not as a dated filing total.

Controversies: the early voting bill drew sustained criticism from voting access advocates, reported above. No personal scandal was found in the sources retrieved. A 2024 primary profile in Arizona Agenda referenced a past legal matter and Carbone telling a newspaper he never did any jail time; this page did not retrieve enough verified detail to print the underlying facts, so it prints only that the episode exists in campaign coverage and leaves the specifics out rather than repeating a half checked claim.

Nickolas "Nick" Kupper (Republican, incumbent)

LD25 state representative since January 2025, serving his first term. Air Force veteran who retired as a Master Sergeant after about 20 years; he refused the military COVID 19 vaccine, was denied medical and religious exemptions, was formally reprimanded in 2022 after speaking about the mandate on Tucker Carlson Tonight, and says that experience motivated him to run. He now works as a paralegal with Military Backpay, representing service members discharged over the mandate. Vice chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, per azcentral. Raised in Oregon; married with four children.

Record: in his freshman term he sponsored 11 bills and cosponsored 79, on parental rights, medical freedom, and protecting families, per Arizona Globe. His best known bill, HB 2112, required age verification for online adult content and was signed into law by Gov. Hobbs. In 2026, per azcentral, he introduced a bill to require websites to scan user content for material considered harmful to minors, aimed at sexual material online and revenge porn, and another bill that would have prohibited public schools from paying for memberships in library associations over concerns about the associations political leanings. His HB 2113 flag bill, limiting flags on government property, drew free speech concerns in Arizona Agenda coverage; Kupper said the intent was to keep politics out of government spaces.

Stated priorities: medical freedom, including a proposal defining it as unprofessional conduct for doctors or hospitals to deny care based solely on vaccination status; parental rights; election integrity; support for the Empowerment Scholarship Account program and increased education funding; opposition to gun control and to abortion; and opposition to limiting water use for agriculture.

Money: TransparencyUSA lists Kupper with $38,100.00 in contributions and $7,727.10 in expenditures for this race, retrieved October 2026, with the same dating caveat as Carbone above.

Controversies: his vaccine mandate fight is his biography and his platform at once, and it is contested ground: supporters call it coerced retirement after 19 years, and he met Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in September 2025 with other affected service members to push for accountability and restitution. No other controversy of significance was found.

Tiffany Byrne (Democrat)

Democratic challenger and a Clean Elections participating candidate. A 30 year Arizona resident who spent more than 20 years as a high school chemistry teacher before serving as a K 12 science education leader; she was named Teacher of the Year in her district, per her campaign site and KYMA coverage from Yuma. This is her first run for the Legislature found in the sources retrieved.
  • Stated priorities: public education funding and teacher pay, telling KYMA "we absolutely need to make sure that our teachers have a livable wage"; accountability within the state school voucher (ESA) program and transparency in water management, per azcentral; workforce development and job training; a level playing field for small businesses; wages that keep pace with the cost of living; and expanded housing access from rentals to ownership.
  • Money: TransparencyUSA lists Byrne with $3,016.00 in contributions and $731.65 in expenditures, retrieved October 2026. As a Clean Elections candidate, her public financing is the larger part of her funding model and is not captured in that private contribution figure; no Clean Elections disbursement total was retrieved.
  • Controversies: none found.

Verification notes

  • Geography correction: the assignment that produced this page described LD25 as a Mesa area district. It is not. Every source retrieved, the district Wikipedia page, the 2026 general election guide, both parties district organizations, and azcentral, places LD25 in Buckeye, the far West Valley, and Yuma County. The page uses the verified geography.
  • Key vote depth is limited. No name level Senate roll calls for Dunn and no name level House roll calls for Carbone or Kupper were verified for this page; their records are therefore presented as sponsored bills and leadership actions reported by azcentral, Arizona Mirror, Arizona Agenda, and Arizona Globe, each attributed in the text. Party line votes were not assumed.
  • Money is uneven. Huber and Clayton style March 2026 See the Money figures exist for Huber only in the Senate race; no Dunn total was located. House figures come from TransparencyUSA race listings retrieved in October 2026 without a printed as of date on the page, and Clean Elections disbursements for Huber and Byrne were not retrieved.
  • The Carbone primary era legal episode is flagged as incompletely retrieved in his entry and deliberately not detailed.
  • Registration figures are from the 2026 Arizona General Election Guide. An older district page lists a different registration split (42.55 percent Republican, 21.14 percent Democratic); the guide figures are the current cycle figures and are the ones printed.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. Write the name exactly and fill the oval.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.