Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD19
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 19

LD19: the chamber swap district, where the incumbents trade seats

November 3, 2026 general election. District 19 covers all of Greenlee County and sections of Cochise, Graham, Pima, and Santa Cruz counties, including Sierra Vista, Benson, Willcox, Douglas, Safford, and Vail, about 230,476 people. Registration (January 2023 Secretary of State report, as compiled for the district): 43.12 percent Republican, 23.19 percent Democratic, 32.20 percent other. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district outside the competitive range and leaning Republican, with a key election vote spread of Republican plus 22.18 percent in the Arizona Republic guide. In 2024 the Republican Senate candidate won this district 62.6 to 37.4 percent, and Donald Trump carried it by 23.0 points. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Griffin vs. Karp, a rematch of the 2024 margin in new seats

The structural fact: Sen. David Gowan (R) is term limited in the Senate and is running for the House instead. Rep. Gail Griffin (R), term limited in the House, is running for his Senate seat. Democrat Bob Karp lost to Gowan in this district in 2024 by 62.6 to 37.4 percent, and in 2026 he reached the general election as a write in nominee in the Democratic primary, with 2,145 write in votes, after the Democrat who had filed did not proceed. This is a contested ballot line in a district Republicans have won by about 25 points. It is not rated competitive by the sources used here.

Gail Griffin (Republican)

State representative for this district and the former 14th district since 2019 in her current run, first elected to the Legislature in 1996 and returned on and off since then. Real estate professional from Sierra Vista. Chair of the House Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee, the post that made her the central House figure on water. She won the Republican Senate primary unopposed with 25,115 votes.

Record, stated as record rather than invented roll calls: The Arizona Republic summarizes her House tenure this way: for years she has used her committee chair position to stop bills she did not like from advancing, and she has opposed attempts to more strictly regulate rural groundwater. Her own sponsored bills in the 2026 session include HB 2757 and HB 2758, which would allow groundwater from the Butler Valley and McMullen Valley basins in western Arizona to be withdrawn and sold or transported to large cities. She defended the bills by pointing to looming Colorado River cuts and arguing that the transfer framework already exists in state law. Rural county supervisors in La Paz and Yavapai counties criticized the bills as moving rural water to urban areas for outside financial interests. In 2025, Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed her HB 2271, which would have required the Department of Water Resources to include total groundwater volume data in its annual supply and demand reports. Griffin responded that rural Arizonans want to know how much groundwater they have beneath their feet, and that the veto blocked the only bill that would have answered that question. In an October 2025 op ed she argued that Arizona already has every groundwater tool it needs under the 1980 Groundwater Management Act and its companion laws, and that more than 90 percent of Arizonans already live under some form of groundwater management.

Key votes: no individual floor votes for Griffin were verified at name level from azleg.gov roll calls in time for this page, so none are printed as votes. Her sponsorships and her committee record above are the verified record, and they point in one consistent direction: local control of groundwater, skepticism of new statewide rural regulation, and support for moving water from rural basins to cities under existing transfer law.

Stated priorities: groundwater management under existing law rather than a new statewide framework, disclosure of groundwater supply data, and the water transfer bills described above. She was endorsed by the Greater Phoenix Chamber. The Arizona Technology Council made no endorsement in this Senate race.

Money: campaign finance reports as of March 2026, via See the Money as compiled by Wikipedia: raised $84,400, spent $14,382.89, cash on hand $69,736.11. That date is part of the fact. No later total was retrieved, and her totals will have changed since March.

Controversies: the water fight is the controversy, and both sides are stated above: supporters call her the defender of rural water rights and local control, critics in rural counties and in Democratic commentary call her a protector of private pumping interests who blocks stricter rural groundwater rules. The Bisbee Wire, a Democratic leaning local commentary site, calls her the queen of water protection for private interests. That is an opponent characterization, printed here as one, not as a finding.

Bob Karp (Democrat)

Sierra Vista area candidate. Owner of Karp Properties LLC, former City of Sierra Vista planning and zoning commissioner, bachelor's in political science from UCLA, per BallotReady. He was the Democratic nominee here in 2024 and lost to Gowan 62.6 to 37.4 percent. In 2026 he became the nominee as a write in in the Democratic primary.
  • Stated priorities, in the Arizona Republic summary: a reform agenda that includes overhauling the Empowerment Scholarship Account voucher program, advocating for universal health care, and expanding state child care tax credits.
  • From his BallotReady answers: raise per pupil school spending from $12,522 to at least the national median of about $15,600, make post secondary education including trade training less expensive, invest more in K to 12 public schools with targeted criteria, restructure the ESA program back toward its original intention, expand child care options and credits, and pursue rural economic development so workers do not have to relocate or commute long distances.
  • Money: no campaign finance figures for Karp were located as of October 27, 2026. The March 2026 See the Money table for this race lists only a Democrat who did not proceed to the general election, at $0. Controversies: none found.

State House: two seats, four candidates, and a former speaker asking to come back downstairs

How this race works: vote for up to two. Republicans David Gowan and Lupe Diaz won the Republican primary over Cheryl Caswell. Democrats Jackie Anderson and Aiden Swallow were the only two Democrats to file and advanced automatically, separated by 26 votes in the primary count, 13,456 to 13,430. Republicans have held both seats on these lines, and a Democratic win for either seat would require beating the district's roughly 22 point Republican spread.

David Gowan (Republican)

State senator for this district, term limited in the Senate, now running for the House. He previously served in the House and was Speaker of the House from 2015 to 2017. Sierra Vista. He finished first in the 2026 Republican House primary with 19,490 votes.

Record: as senator he carried a bill covered by the Arizona Republic that would prioritize clinical need at the Arizona State Hospital, part of the state's mental health capacity debate. His current campaign, per the Republic, is focused on strong border security, religious liberty, and increased parents' rights.

Controversies, with the outcome: as Speaker in 2016, the Arizona Capitol Times reported that Gowan repaid the state more than $12,000 for travel and mileage reimbursements, including mileage claimed for trips taken in state vehicles and per diem for days he had not worked. Gowan asked the Attorney General to investigate. The Arizona Republic's 2026 guide summarizes the result: the Attorney General ultimately said there was no evidence that Gowan had intentionally rigged the system. A House spokeswoman at the time attributed the errors to a mistake by his assistant. Separately, as Speaker he imposed a rule requiring reporters to consent to background checks for House floor access, a policy critics in the press corps tied to the Capitol Times reporting on his travel, and which he later dropped. Both episodes are a decade old; they are printed because they are the documented controversy in his record, and the exoneration on intent is printed with them.

Money: no campaign finance totals for Gowan's 2026 House campaign were located as of October 27, 2026. Key votes: no individual Senate floor votes were verified at name level for this page, so none are listed as votes.

Lupe Diaz (Republican, incumbent)

State representative since November 23, 2021, appointed by the Cochise County Board of Supervisors to the old 14th district seat, then elected in the 19th district in 2022 and 2024. Pastor of Grace Chapel in Benson since 1988 and administrator of Grace Christian Academy, former Benson city councilmember, former president of the Benson and San Pedro Valley Chamber of Commerce, bachelor's in theology from the School of Bible Theology. Born and raised in Bisbee. Chair of the House Land, Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee, with seats on Appropriations and Commerce per his listings. He finished second in the Republican primary with 14,307 votes.

Record and stated priorities: his 2026 campaign emphasizes election integrity, border security, and school choice, per the Arizona Republic. The Republic also reports that he backed several bills in the past session that would have limited the powers of the Attorney General's office after Attorney General Kris Mayes sued over several controversial business developments. Diaz did not order a formal investigation into a fellow lawmaker who called Muslims savages, a decision the Republic noted in its district coverage; this page reports the headline fact only, because the underlying article text was not retrieved. His BallotReady positions: finish the border wall, add Border Patrol staffing, reinstate Title 42, support school choice with accountability for results, defend Second Amendment rights, and protect private property and water rights.

Controversy, with responses: on April 1, 2024, Diaz used the House opening prayer for a sermon of nearly five minutes that called the United States an unrighteous nation, tied that judgment to International Transgender Day of Visibility falling on Easter that year, and said eternal life is available only to those who acknowledge Jesus Christ. House Democrats issued a formal response condemning the use of the opening prayer to target LGBTQ people and non Christians. LOOKOUT reported that Diaz did not respond to its request for comment and that no Republican commented. The sermon is a matter of House floor record; the disagreement is over whether an opening prayer is the place for it.

Money: no campaign finance totals for Diaz were located as of October 27, 2026. Key votes: no individual floor votes were verified at name level for this page.

Jackie O'Donnell Anderson (Democrat)

Retired nurse and hospital worker who, per Arizona List and the Pima County Democratic voter guide, came out of retirement to run. Listed on ballots as Jackie Anderson. She finished first in the Democratic primary with 13,456 votes.
  • Stated priorities: concern about the impact of looming cuts to Medicaid, and accountability in the state school voucher program, per the Arizona Republic. The Democratic voter guide summarizes her campaign as fighting for LD19 families on Medicaid, schools, and voucher accountability.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found. Her biography beyond nursing is thin in the sources retrieved, and this page does not fill it in.

Aiden Nichollette Swallow (Democrat)

Former Army human intelligence professional with nearly 20 years of service and two combat deployments, per her campaign site and endorsing organizations. She says she was removed from the Army after coming out as transgender. That is her account of her discharge, attributed here to her campaign. She finished second in the Democratic primary with 13,430 votes, 26 votes behind Anderson.
  • Stated priorities: expand the state Medicaid program, fully fund rural clinics, and block corporations from depleting aquifers for outside profit, per the Arizona Republic summary of her platform. Her campaign site frames the race around rural poverty: food, medical care, and strong education for rural Arizonans, and the line that no Arizonan should have to choose between health care and food.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found beyond the discharge account above, which is presented as she states it.

Verification notes

  • Key votes are this page's admitted shortfall. No individual roll call votes were verified at name level for Griffin, Gowan, or Diaz, so this page prints sponsorships, committee power, and documented episodes instead, and labels them as record rather than votes. Do not read a sponsorship as a floor vote.
  • Money is dated where it exists and missing where it does not. Only Griffin has a retrieved total, as of March 2026 via See the Money. No totals were located for Karp, Gowan, Diaz, Anderson, or Swallow as of October 27, 2026, and no post March figures were retrieved for anyone in this district.
  • Registration and population are from the district compilation based on the January 2023 Secretary of State registration report, not a 2026 registration snapshot. The competitiveness spread is the Redistricting Commission key election spread as published in the Arizona Republic guide. The two measures answer different questions and are not combined here.
  • Karp's route to the ballot matters to how you read his money and coverage: he was a write in nominee, so the usual filed candidate paper trail is thinner than a normal campaign's.
  • One headline only item is flagged in Diaz's entry: the decision not to investigate a fellow lawmaker was noted from Arizona Republic district coverage headlines without the full article text.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center in your own county instead. LD19 spans five counties, so check whether a drop box or vote center is in Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, or Santa Cruz County before you travel to it.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.
Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.