Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD16
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 16

LD16: the Casa Grande district where the single shot is the whole House race

November 3, 2026 general election. District 16 covers parts of Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties, anchored by Casa Grande, Coolidge, Florence, and the city of Maricopa, and stretching, in the Arizona Agenda's summary, from the edges of Tucson to the edges of the Valley. Registration: 28.24 percent Democratic, 33.52 percent Republican, 38.24 percent other, per the 2026 General Election Guide. The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district Competitive, with a key election vote spread of Republican plus 3.6 percent in the Arizona Republic guide, while the 2024 presidential vote inside the district was Republican plus 9.4 points. No forecaster rating for these specific races was located.

State Senate: Shope vs. Aldrete

The structural fact: Sen. T.J. Shope has represented this area in the Legislature for 14 consecutive years, first in the House and since 2020 in the Senate, and he won in 2024 by 56.0 to 44.0 percent. His Democratic challenger raised about $2,130 by March 2026 against his $143,819. Both the Arizona Republic and the Arizona Agenda describe the Aldrete campaign as a long shot. It is contested on paper, and the money and history say it is not close on paper either. This page prints both facts.

Thomas "T.J." Shope (Republican, incumbent)

State senator since 2020, after serving in the House, where he was speaker pro tempore for several years starting in 2017; he is now Senate president pro tempore. He began in politics on the Coolidge Unified School District Governing Board. He works as a sales development officer at the National Bank of Arizona. His father was a longtime Coolidge mayor, and the family formerly ran a grocery store in the area, a name recognition point the Arizona Agenda flags explicitly. Committees have included vice chairmanships of Natural Resources and Water, Transportation and Technology, and Education, and he chaired the Senate Natural Resources committee in its March 17, 2026 meeting record.

Record and key votes (verified individually where a vote is named):

  • SB 1520 (2025), rural groundwater: YES. The Senate floor vote was 18 to 10, with Shope in the yes column and Sen. Sundareshan of LD18 in the no column, per the azleg.gov vote record carried by FastDemocracy.
  • SB 1186 (2026), the pay to play bill: Shope introduced the underlying idea in 2025, per the Arizona Republic: requiring public disclosure of political contributions by groups seeking state contracts, after reporting that a major donor to Gov. Katie Hobbs received favorable treatment. The 2026 version passed on party lines. That is a sponsorship record, not a single named floor vote for Shope on this page.
  • Stated priorities, attributed to the Maricopa County Republican summary and his legislative profile: transportation, water, public safety, rural development, and Pinal County infrastructure.

Money: campaign finance reports as of March 2026, via the Wikipedia summary of See the Money: raised $143,819.06, spent $29,160.04, $114,659.02 on hand. No later total was retrieved, and his totals will have changed since.

Controversies: none of significance found in the sources consulted. His pay to play bill was itself an attack on the Hobbs administration, and Democrats, including the Senate minority leader in a neighboring district, called the 2026 version a messaging vehicle rather than a workable reform. That exchange is reported in his opponent district's entry and in the LD18 page.

Elaine Aldrete (Democrat)

Community activist and founder of an education focused nonprofit, per the Arizona Republic. She was formerly treasurer for Keith Seaman, the Democrat who held one of this district's House seats in 2023 and 2024. She won the Democratic primary unopposed with 14,239 votes.
  • Stated priorities: beyond the education focus of her nonprofit work, no detailed platform was located on a campaign site or in the coverage consulted as of October 26, 2026. This page does not fill that gap with guesses.
  • Money: campaign finance reports as of March 2026: raised $2,130.00, spent $433.63, $1,696.37 on hand. The gap to Shope, about 67 to 1 on money raised at that date, is the central fact of this race.
  • Controversies: none found.

State House: two seats, three candidates, one Democrat

How this race works: vote for up to two. With two Republican incumbents and only one Democrat, Julia Romero Gusse needs a top two finish to take a seat, and she is asking Democrats to single shot, meaning vote for her alone and leave the second vote blank, so their votes are not split. The tactic has a local precedent: Democrat Keith Seaman narrowly won a seat here in 2022 as a single shot candidate, then lost it in 2024 running the same way. At least one Republican is guaranteed a seat unless Gusse and one Republican both finish ahead of the other Republican, in which case the split is one and one.

Chris Lopez (Republican, incumbent)

State representative since January 2025, elected in 2024. A Casa Grande small business owner: before the Legislature he owned a concession business and a trucking firm. Vice chairman of the House Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee; his committee list in a 2025 Maricopa City Council update also included Appropriations and Health and Human Services. In 2025 the Republican House speaker nominated him for a competitive program for emerging leaders, per the Arizona Republic.

Key vote (verified individually): HB 2403 (2026), an appropriation for an AHCCCS provider increase: YES, on a House floor vote of 41 to 9 in which both of his LD16 seatmates who were present in the list, and most Democrats, also voted yes.

Stated priorities, attributed: job creation, small business growth, public safety, infrastructure, and responsible management of regional growth, per the Maricopa County Republican candidate summary. In the Maricopa council update, he and Rep. Martinez described securing district project funding, including money for Maricopa police and fire and a grant for suicide prevention services.

Money: no clean 2026 cycle total for Lopez was located in the sources retrieved, so none is printed.

Controversies: the Arizona Republic reports that in his 2024 race Democrats targeted his personal finances and tax records. No official finding on those attacks was located, and the campaign itself is the only source for the targeting claim beyond that reporting, so it is printed as a campaign history note, not as a verified financial problem.

Teresa Martinez (Republican, incumbent)

State representative from Casa Grande, in the House since 2021, and House majority leader in the prior legislature, per 2024 primary coverage. Vice chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Her platform has generally aligned with the right wing of the Republican Party, in the Arizona Republic's characterization.
  • Key vote (verified individually): HB 2403 (2026), AHCCCS provider increase appropriation: YES, same 41 to 9 House floor vote as Lopez.
  • Her 2026 bills: one would have made it illegal to disturb or disquiet a religious service through indecent behavior, profane discourse, or unnecessary noise. The Arizona Republic placed it in a wave of protest related bills that drew free speech concerns from civil rights groups. A second bill would allow a school board member to pray during a governing board meeting if the member requested to do so. A third, HB 2102, would bar the state from reallocating police RICO forfeiture funds to cover general budget shortfalls; she told the Maricopa City Council a budget footnote ultimately carried the restriction after the bill stalled.
  • Money: no clean 2026 cycle total located, so none is printed. Controversies: the religious service and prayer bills drew the civil liberties criticism noted above; no personal controversy was found.

Julia Romero Gusse (Democrat)

Listed on the General Election Guide as Romero-Gusse, Julia, and campaigning as Julia Romero Gusse. U.S. Air Force veteran, former two term Maricopa City Council member, and former staffer at the Arizona Department of Veterans Services, where she says she retired in order to run. She led a veterans support initiative at Arizona State University. She told Blog for Arizona she has been a Pinal County resident for 22 years. She won the Democratic primary unopposed with 14,511 votes, and hers is the only Democratic candidacy for two seats, which is why the single shot ask exists.
  • Stated priorities, in her own framing: strong schools, safe communities, and leaders who put people over politics; addressing a cost of living she described as through the roof; and delivering results for LD16 residents rather than seeking a spotlight.
  • The attack on her, with its source named: an opposition site at juliagusse.org, paid for by House Victory Fund and not authorized by any candidate, calls her a liberal member of Team Biden who moved to Arizona to push a progressive agenda, and predicts higher spending and taxes. Her 22 year Pinal County residency statement, above, is the direct counterpoint to the moved here framing, and voters can weigh both. No independent verification of the site's tax and spending predictions exists, because they are predictions.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located as of October 26, 2026. Other controversies: none found beyond the opposition site.

Verification notes

  • County footprint: this page follows the Wikipedia Senate election summary and the Blog for Arizona LD16 profile, both of which list Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal counties. No source consulted placed any part of LD16 in Cochise County.
  • Key vote depth is limited. One House floor vote, HB 2403 in 2026, was verified name by name for Lopez and Martinez, and one Senate floor vote, SB 1520 in 2025, for Shope. Other party line votes were not added without name level sources.
  • Money is dated where it exists. Senate figures are as of March 2026, from See the Money as summarized by Wikipedia. No House cycle totals for Lopez, Martinez, or Gusse were located, and Aldrete has no later figure retrieved.
  • Aldrete's detailed platform and Gusse's campaign finance totals could not be verified from the sources consulted. Both gaps are stated in their entries rather than filled.
  • Registration figures differ slightly by source and date: the General Election Guide gives 33.52 percent Republican and 28.24 percent Democratic; the Arizona Agenda, writing in October 2026, rounded to 33 percent Republican, 27 percent Democratic, and 40 percent other. This page prints the Guide figures in the header and notes the Agenda rounding here.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. Write the name exactly and fill the oval.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot. In this House race, leaving the second vote blank is exactly what the single shot strategy asks of Democratic voters.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.