Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD15
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 15

LD15: one real Senate race on the ballot, and a House race with no opponent at all

November 3, 2026 general election. District 15 consists of all of San Tan Valley, almost all of Queen Creek, and the southern tip of Mesa, about 240,028 people. Plainly, because it matters for who runs your elections and whose ballot you get: this district extends beyond Maricopa County. It has 45 precincts, 26 in Maricopa County and 19 in Pinal County, and San Tan Valley is in Pinal. Registration in the 2026 general election guide: 19 percent Democratic, 46 percent Republican, 35 percent other. The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district outside the competitive range and leaning Republican, with a key election vote spread of Republican plus 27.4 points, and recent results match: the Republican Senate candidate won with 63.7 percent in 2024, and Donald Trump carried the district by about 30 points in the 2024 presidential vote. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Hoffman vs. Accalia

The structural fact: incumbent Sen. Jake Hoffman (R) is one of the most powerful and most controversial legislators in Arizona, and he is running in one of its safest Republican districts. Both nominees won their July 21, 2026 primaries unopposed, Hoffman with 26,391 votes. In 2024 Hoffman beat his Democratic opponent 63.7 to 31.9 percent, with an independent taking 4.4 percent. Nothing in the district's registration, its recent margins, or the coverage retrieved suggests this seat is in play. The honest question this race poses is not who wins; it is whether voters in a safe seat want to keep sending this particular record back to the Capitol. Both candidates' records are laid out below on the same template as every other race on this site.

Jake Hoffman (Republican, incumbent)

LD15 state senator since January 2023; before that, a state representative (2021 to 2023), a Queen Creek Town Council member, and a Higley Unified School District governing board member. Founding chairman of the Arizona Freedom Caucus. He chairs the Senate Government Committee and the Executive Nominations Committee and is vice chairman of Appropriations, per his Clean Elections voter guide statement. Professionally he is the CEO of multiple tech, marketing, and political strategy businesses, and a former spokesperson for Turning Point, per azcentral. He describes himself in that same voter guide statement as Americans for Limited Government's 2021 National Legislator of the Year and a "100% rated constitutional conservative legislator." Married, father of five.

Record in office, from the coverage and his own statement:

  • Nominations gatekeeper: as nominations chair he made headlines blocking many of Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs' nominees, which is real power over how the executive branch gets staffed, exercised from a safe seat.
  • Election legislation: his own voter guide statement lists authoring legislation to ban private funding of elections, prohibit mass mailing of ballots to voters who did not request one, and require proof of citizenship to vote, plus a 2026 law banning any Arizona government from requiring a COVID vaccine.
  • Prop 320: Hoffman is the sponsor of the legislative referral that became Proposition 320, the measure requiring larger school districts to raise direct instructional spending toward 60 percent, with a Classroom Site Fund penalty for districts that fall short. Supporters say it boosts teacher pay and cuts administrative bloat; critics note it does not guarantee raises and leaves the key definition to the auditor general. That measure has its own page on this site.
  • HB 2677 (2024), repeal of the 1864 near total abortion ban: NO. Verified via the Freedom Index scorecard of Senate votes (the bill passed the Senate 16 to 14). State Affairs' account of that floor fight adds the color: Hoffman tried and failed to amend the bill to require rape or incest cases be reported immediately to law enforcement, and called the repeal losing "one of the best, strongest pro-life measures in the country."

Money, and a distinction this page will not blur: no campaign finance totals for Hoffman's own Senate campaign were located in the sources retrieved, so none are printed. What azcentral has reported is different money: companies owned by Hoffman received more than $1 million in campaign spending during the 2026 election cycle, much of it from Turning Point's campaign operation. That is income to his businesses from other campaigns, not donations to his, and it becomes a controversy below, on those terms.

Controversies, with responses where they exist:

  • The fake electors case. Hoffman was one of the 11 Arizona Republicans who submitted a document to Congress declaring Donald Trump the winner of Arizona's 2020 election, and one of 18 defendants charged by Attorney General Kris Mayes with forgery, fraud, and conspiracy. The merits were never decided: a judge sent the case back to a grand jury in May 2025 over how the grand jury was instructed, the state Supreme Court remanded it, and Mayes's office then had the charges dismissed without prejudice, meaning they can be refiled, while saying it intends to return the case to a grand jury. Hoffman and the other defendants have asked the appeals court to bar refiling. Hoffman has consistently treated the prosecution as political; azcentral's summary is that he "pushed discredited theories about widespread fraud in recent U.S. elections and served as one of Arizona's fake electors," which is the factual core both sides are arguing about.
  • The Hobbs investigation and his companies' client. In September 2026 Hoffman announced a Senate investigation of Gov. Hobbs over a group home rate increase that benefited a donor company; Attorney General Mayes's office had already found no evidence to support a bribery charge, per azcentral. Days later Hoffman exited the probe after conflict of interest questions: Turning Point PAC had paid his advertising companies more than $350,000 to help Andy Biggs, the Republican running against Hobbs, in the two days before he announced the investigation, and his companies had been paid more than $1.5 million this year to help Biggs, per state disclosures reported by azcentral. The Hobbs campaign called the probe a stunt by "a political consultant profiting from these shameless attacks on behalf of the Biggs campaign"; Mayes's spokesperson called it a taxpayer funded political grudge match and "performative political nonsense." Hoffman did not withdraw the allegation itself; the investigation continued under other hands after his exit.

Jayme Accalia (Democrat)

Native Arizonan, mother of three, and culinary educator. She teaches dual enrollment Culinary Arts and Hospitality courses at Central Arizona College, working with high school students, and ASU's profile of its 2025 graduate cohort transforming food systems describes her community work: supporting Empty Bowls events, creating a school pantry so students have reliable access to meals, and advocating free, nourishing school meals and stronger connections between schools and local food producers. She calls herself a community advocate. Endorsed by the Sierra Club and Arizona List, among other Democratic aligned groups. She has never held elected office, so there is no voting record to check. The Clean Elections series listed an LD15 debate between Accalia and Hoffman on September 22, 2026.
  • Stated priorities (her campaign site, in her words): strengthen education by "turning schools back into community hubs"; support local farmers and small businesses; protect Arizona's water future; expand workforce development and career opportunities; improve affordability for families "by pushing back against corporate domination"; and build communities where families can thrive. Her framing: "an economy that works for working families, not just the corporations and special interests."
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located in the sources retrieved. Controversies: none found.
  • The math, plainly: her path would require cutting a 2024 margin of roughly 32 points in a district whose registration is 46 percent Republican and 19 percent Democratic. No source retrieved for this page treats the seat as competitive. She is on the ballot, she is campaigning on a stated platform, and those two facts are what this entry can verify.

State House: two seats, two candidates, no contest

This race is uncontested, and this page will not pad it into a contest. The general election ballot for LD15 House lists exactly two candidates for two seats, both Republican incumbents: Neal Carter and Michael Way. No Democrat, independent, or third party candidate filed. The 2026 general election guide lists only Carter and Way, azcentral's legislature guide lists only the two of them, and in the July 21 Republican primary they were the only two candidates, Carter with 22,107 votes (51.03 percent) and Way with 21,212 (48.97 percent). Barring something extraordinary like a successful eligibility challenge after the fact, both men will be reelected. Your two House votes here are therefore a ratification, not a choice, and the useful information on this page is their records, which follow on the standard template.

Neal Carter (Republican, incumbent)

LD15 state representative since January 2023, and in the House since November 2021, when the Pinal County Board of Supervisors appointed him to the old District 8 seat after Rep. Frank Pratt died in office. Speaker pro tempore of the House since January 2025. He chairs the Ways and Means Committee and also sits on Commerce and Transportation, per azcentral (committee rosters shift by session; see verification notes). Attorney: JD from New York University School of Law in 2010, bachelor's from UCLA in 2006, licensed in Arizona and New York, formerly at Skadden, now a trainer at Nuix, a technology company. San Tan Valley resident since 2010; he has served as general counsel for the Pinal County Republican Committee and the San Tan Valley Advisory Council. Married, three children. Note for Pinal County readers: Carter is one of the few legislators who actually lives on the Pinal County side of this district.

Key votes (verified individually via Vote Smart):

  • HB 2677 (2024), repeal of the 1864 near total abortion ban: NO (name level House vote list, FastDemocracy).
  • HCR 2001 (2026), the referral that became Prop 144 (the FAST Election Results Act): YES. His yes vote was on sending the ballot measure to you; Prop 144 itself is covered on its own page.
  • HCR 2016 (2026), a ballot referral to require precinct based voting: YES. HCR 2056 (2026), a constitutional right to refuse medical mandates: YES.
  • HB 2133 (2026), age and consent verification for sexual material published online: YES (conference report). HB 2223 (2026), disclosure when a registered sex offender requests a legal name change: YES.

Stated priorities and ratings, attributed: his public summaries describe a conservative Republican who believes in "faith, family, and a free economy." Endorsed by NFIB Arizona PAC and, per Vote Smart's ratings page, the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry; NFIB rated him 71 percent and the Sierra Club Grand Canyon Chapter 0 percent in the listings retrieved.

Money: no campaign finance totals located in the sources retrieved. In an uncontested race, that absence costs voters less than it would elsewhere, but it is still a gap, stated as one. Controversies: none of significance found.

Michael Way (Republican, incumbent)

LD15 state representative since January 2025, elected in 2024 as the top vote getter in that election, per the Arizona Agenda, taking a seat previously held by Rep. Jacqueline Parker. Vice chairman of the House Commerce Committee, and a member of Judiciary, Appropriations, Government, and Land, Agriculture and Rural Affairs, per FastDemocracy's roster and azcentral. He works in business development for Charter One, a service provider for charter schools that his family started; his father, Glenn Way, is a former Utah lawmaker who brought American Leadership Academy charter schools to Arizona. Way told the Arizona Agenda he had been "pushing for school choice" behind the scenes before running, while his 2024 campaign's key message was border security: "doing whatever I can to support President Trump and trying to get Katie Hobbs to have a more secure border."
  • The residency case, which is his record's central controversy: Way's 2024 candidacy was challenged in court by Deborah Kirkland, a Republican precinct committeewoman in LD15 who had supported his primary rival Peter Anello, on the claim that he did not meet Arizona's residency requirements, having lived and voted in North Carolina in 2021 and 2022 (the Arizona Agenda dates the North Carolina votes to 2021 and 2022; azcentral describes records showing he was registered to vote in North Carolina leading up to the election). A Maricopa County Superior Court judge dismissed the complaint, ruling that determining a legislator's qualifications is a job the constitution assigns to the Legislature, not the courts, and did not rule on the residency facts themselves. The Arizona GOP celebrated the dismissal and called the attacks baseless. Way said he believed the challenge was organized by Freedom Caucus figures, a claim he later clarified referred to a single North Carolina Freedom Caucus member. The ruling means the factual question was never adjudicated; both halves of that sentence matter.
  • Scorecard, attributed: the Freedom Index's 2026 Arizona scorecard rated Way 67 percent. A comparable set of name level 2026 key votes for Way was not retrieved in this pass (see verification notes), so none are printed rather than inferred from his party or his seatmate.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located in the sources retrieved. Other controversies: none found beyond the residency case above.

Verification notes

  • The uncontested House finding rests on three sources agreeing: the 2026 Arizona General Election Guide candidate list, azcentral's legislature guide, and the Wikipedia House election page's primary results, which show no Democratic primary in District 15 at all. An older ballot listing site showed names from an earlier stage of the cycle, including a Democrat and two additional Republicans; those candidates do not appear in any of the three later sources, so they are treated as not on the November ballot, and this page says so here in case a reader finds that older listing.
  • Money is this page's known shortfall. No campaign finance totals for Hoffman, Accalia, Carter, or Way were located in the sources retrieved, and the Wikipedia election pages that printed March 2026 finance tables for other districts printed none for these four. The only money figures on this page are the azcentral reported payments to Hoffman's companies, which are labeled as what they are: payments to a vendor who is also a senator, not contributions to his campaign.
  • Key vote depth is uneven and is not disguised. Carter's 2026 votes and both incumbents' HB 2677 votes were verified at name level (Vote Smart, FastDemocracy, and the Freedom Index Senate scorecard for Hoffman). Way's individual 2026 votes were not retrieved at name level, so this page prints his committee roles, his stated positions, and the scorecard attributed, and nothing else dressed up as a voting record.
  • Committee lists shift between sessions and sources: azcentral lists Carter on Ways and Means, Commerce, and Transportation, while Vote Smart's biography page lists earlier committee service including Rules. The azcentral list is printed as the current one and the conflict is noted rather than merged.
  • Dates on the fake electors case move. The status printed here, charges dismissed without prejudice with the state saying it can refile and the defendants asking an appeals court to bar refiling, is the status in the State Affairs reporting retrieved in October 2026.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. No official write-in candidate for these LD15 races was listed in the candidate sources checked for this page. Write the name exactly and fill the oval if you use a write-in line in any race.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot. In the House race here, that includes leaving one or both lines blank; with two candidates for two seats, the outcome does not change either way.
Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.