Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD13
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 13

LD13: the Chandler musical chairs district, and a genuine toss up Senate race

November 3, 2026 general election. District 13 covers most of Chandler and Sun Lakes, plus small parts of western Gilbert, entirely within Maricopa County, about 238,000 people. Registration: 27 percent Democratic, 36 percent Republican, 36 percent other (figures as published, rounding accounts for the missing point). The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district "highly competitive," with a composite Republican advantage of about 1.56 points, and recent results match: the Republican Senate candidate won 53.1 to 46.9 percent in 2024, and the district voted Republican by about 1.2 points in the 2024 presidential race. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee lists this Senate seat among its national target races. This is the only one of the three districts on this page set where control of a seat is genuinely in doubt.

State Senate: Willoughby vs. O'Brien for the Mesnard seat

The structural fact, checked carefully: incumbent Sen. J.D. Mesnard (R) is NOT on the 2026 legislative ballot. He is term limited in the Senate, ineligible to run again, and is instead running for San Marcos justice of the peace against incumbent Jennifer Jermaine. The open Senate seat is contested by Rep. Julie Willoughby (R), moving up from the House, and Kristie O'Brien (D). Both were unopposed in their July 21, 2026 primaries: Willoughby took 20,222 Republican primary votes, O'Brien 17,165 Democratic primary votes. Nobody here is an incumbent senator; Willoughby is the only candidate with a legislative voting record.

Julie Willoughby (Republican)

LD13 state representative, first elected in a 2023 appointment and election cycle and serving since then; she most recently served as House Majority Whip. Former emergency room nurse. She won the Republican Senate primary unopposed.

Key votes (verified individually via Vote Smart, all House votes):

  • HB 2133 (2026), age and consent verification for sexual material published online: YES (conference report, June 11, 2026). She also voted YES on the predecessor bill, HB 2112 (2025), requiring commercial pornography sites to verify a user's age.
  • HCR 2001 (2026), the referral that became Prop 144 (the FAST Election Results Act): YES. Her yes vote was on sending the measure to you; Prop 144 itself is covered on its own page.
  • HCR 2016 (2026), a ballot referral to require precinct based voting: YES. HCR 2056 (2026), a constitutional right to refuse medical mandates: YES. HB 2223 (2026), disclosure when a registered sex offender requests a legal name change: YES.

Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): affordability, school choice, and improving public safety. Scorecards and endorsements, attributed: Sierra Club Grand Canyon Chapter rating of 0 percent; NFIB Arizona rating of 67 percent with a 2026 endorsement; endorsed by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry; endorsed by the Arizona Technology Council for this Senate race.

Money: as of March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $144,277.68, spent $11,666.61, $132,611.07 on hand. That is by far the largest war chest in any race on this page, it was built before the primary was even contested (it was not), and the date is part of the fact: no later figure was retrieved.

Controversies: none of significance found. Democratic aligned groups are spending in this district because it is a target, and their materials attack her sponsored bills and votes; that is ordinary target race opposition, and specific claims in those materials were not independently verified in this research pass, so none are repeated here as fact.

Kristie O'Brien (Democrat)

Lawyer turned mediator, Chandler native who grew up in the district and graduated from Dobson High School. B.A. in international relations from Trinity University in Washington, D.C., a certificate from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and a J.D. from Bond University Law School in Australia. Member of the New York State Bar; Arizona trained mediator; legal background in environmental, corporate, employment, intellectual property, entertainment, and international criminal law. Former Capitol Hill staffer who, per the Arizona Republic, served 10 senators of both parties. Single mother of twins, per her campaign materials. She won the Democratic primary unopposed with 17,165 votes.
  • Stated priorities: lowering costs for families (groceries, prescriptions, utilities, housing, child care, in her campaign's framing), investing in public K to 12 education, colleges, and universities, water security, affordable health care access, and bipartisan problem solving. Her words to Blog for Arizona: this is her hometown district, Arizona "is not as affordable as it used to be," and she wants "common sense solutions" rather than division. Endorsed in listings retrieved by Moms Fed Up and several local labor unions, and backed by the DLCC Target Races program.
  • Controversy, with attribution and the limit of what was verified: an opposition research site, thekristieobrienrecord.com, claims her New York law license was suspended in 2019 for failure to satisfy biennial registration rules, and that her 2014 state senate campaign was named in a 2016 Arizona tax lien with no recorded satisfaction as of July 2026, citing New York court records and a Maricopa County Recorder lien filing. Those claims are printed here exactly as claims: this page did not independently pull the court or recorder records, and no campaign response to them was located in the sources retrieved. Voters weighing them should know both the sourcing and the gap.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals for O'Brien were located in the records retrieved (her opponents' March Senate table in the sources used lists finance only for Willoughby). That is stated as a gap, not filled with an estimate.

State House: two open seats, four new lawmakers either way

How this race works: vote for up to two. Both seats are open. Rep. Jeff Weninger (R) left to run for Chandler mayor (he lost the July 21, 2026 mayoral election to Matt Orlando, 58.46 to 41.54 percent), and Rep. Willoughby is running for Senate. There are no incumbents in this race at all. Republicans Kevin Hartke and Janet Weninger face Democrats Racquel "Rockee" Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg. In the Republican primary, Hartke took 13,568 votes (43.4 percent), Weninger 10,762 (34.4 percent), and Debra Schinke 6,913 (22.1 percent) and was eliminated. In the Democratic primary, Armstrong took 15,278 votes (54.1 percent) and Weinberg 12,957 (45.9 percent), both advancing without elimination risk since only two Democrats ran for two slots. A split result, one Republican and one Democrat, is a realistic outcome in a district this close; this district held a Democratic House seat as recently as Jennifer Pawlik's tenure.

Kevin Hartke (Republican)

Mayor of Chandler, completing his second term as mayor (first elected mayor in 2018, current term ends January 2027), after two terms on the Chandler City Council starting in 2008. St. Louis native, in Chandler since 1985; longtime lead pastor at Trinity Christian Fellowship. Bachelor's in biochemistry from the University of Missouri, master's in theology from Fuller Theological Seminary. He serves on regional boards including the Maricopa Association of Governments and the League of Arizona Cities and Towns.
  • Why he is here, in his own framing and the reporting's: term limits end his mayoral run. The Arizona Republic reported he filed for the House in July 2025, two months after learning he might not be eligible to run again for City Council after two council terms and two mayoral terms. Hartke told the Arizona Agenda: "I still believe that I'm supposed to be serving, and this is an opportunity for me to do so."
  • Stated positions (Arizona Republic): as mayor he has voted to protect Second Amendment rights, invest in small businesses, and defend the state's school voucher (ESA) program. His campaign describes him as a forward looking conservative emphasizing limited government, economic growth, community safety, and family values.
  • Controversy, with the outcome included: his mayoral tenure itself was litigated. His 2022 mayoral opponent sued, claiming his consecutive terms violated the Chandler charter's term limits language; local reporting describes a confused charter provision that also confused the city attorney, a court ruling dismissing a challenge that clarified his path, and a November 2026 special election asking Chandler voters to rewrite the language to allow 16 consecutive years. Readers should separate the two facts: the eligibility question was about city office, and reporting retrieved found no ruling that he held the mayor's office unlawfully.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. He did not answer the Arizona Republic's primary candidate questionnaire, per the Republic; Weninger and Schinke did.

Janet Weninger (Republican)

Running to replace her husband, Rep. Jeff Weninger, in the seat he is leaving. She and her husband own restaurant businesses in Chandler, including Floridino's Pizza and Pasta and Dilly's Deli concepts the family has run for more than 20 years. She is CEO of the Christian charity Crusaders of Love. The couple raised three children in Chandler.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic and her campaign site): border security and protecting religious rights (Republic questionnaire coverage); her campaign site frames her as "fighting for Arizona families," citing raising her family in Chandler and running the family business, standing up for vulnerable kids, lower taxes, and protecting neighborhoods; the Republic's primary coverage also summarized her as a conservative who supports firearm rights, border enforcement, and the ESA voucher program, and who supports prevention programs for crime and homelessness and hopes to prioritize funding for classrooms.
  • Record: no prior elective record in the sources retrieved. Money: no totals located. Controversies: none found.

Racquel "Rockee" Armstrong (Democrat)

Education professor at Arizona State University; assistant professor in listings retrieved. Previously a public school English and math teacher and a school administrator. Degrees from Wellesley, Penn, and Ohio State in listings retrieved; a 2009 Truman Scholar per LD13 Democratic materials. Top vote getter in the Democratic primary with 15,278 votes.
  • Stated priorities: fully funded public schools, attainable housing, tackling rising costs, public safety reforms developed in partnership with local law enforcement, investing in Arizona's education system, and expanding apprenticeships and technical careers. Her slogan, per Blog for Arizona: "leads with strength; fights with purpose." She told Blog for Arizona she wants to bring "a fresh new voice" backed by practical and academic education experience, and to represent an intergenerational district of retirees, veterans, young professionals, and working families.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found.

Jacob Weinberg (Democrat)

U.S. Army combat veteran, small business owner, and chief financial officer. Ballotpedia's survey biography: Army service since 2005, served in Iraq with the 82nd Airborne per his campaign team materials; bachelor's from the University of Arizona in 2005, graduate degrees from the University of Illinois in 2012 and Harvard University in 2025.
  • Stated priorities (his LD13 team materials): safeguarding tax dollars, lowering grocery costs by increasing competition and cracking down on price gouging, stopping utility rate hikes on families, reining in prescription drug middlemen, and clearing the way for starter homes and attainable housing.
  • Record: no prior elective record in the sources retrieved. Money: no totals located. Controversies: none found.

Verification notes

  • Mesnard check, as requested by the facts themselves: three independent lines agree. Wikipedia's retiring incumbents list says District 13's J.D. Mesnard is term limited and running for San Marcos justice of the peace. The Sun Lakes Republican Club's April 2026 meeting flyer says the same and lists Willoughby as the Senate candidate. Ballot coverage of the San Marcos justice of the peace race lists Mesnard as the Republican against Jennifer Jermaine. He is not a legislative candidate in 2026.
  • Willoughby is this page's strongest key vote record: five 2026 votes verified individually via Vote Smart. None of the other five candidates on this page has a legislative record, so no votes are listed for them and none were assumed.
  • The O'Brien license and lien claims rest on a single opposition source citing public records this page did not pull directly. They are labeled as claims in her entry for exactly that reason. No campaign response was located.
  • Money is the thinnest section on this page. Only Willoughby has a dated figure (March 2026). No finance totals were located for O'Brien, Hartke, Janet Weninger, Armstrong, or Weinberg in the records retrieved, which is a notable gap in the state's most competitive legislative district and is admitted here rather than papered over.
  • Jeff Weninger's mayoral result (Orlando 25,319, Weninger 17,991, July 21, 2026) is included because it explains why the House seat is open and confirms he will not be returning to it regardless of November.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. Write the name exactly and fill the oval. No official write-in for these two LD13 races was verified for the general election in our research. Note: J.D. Mesnard appears on your ballot only if you live in the San Marcos justice precinct, for justice of the peace, not for the Legislature.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.