Ballot Math / Maricopa County / Prop 413

Ballot measure: Maricopa County

Proposition 413: Renew the county jail sales tax

On the November 3, 2026 general election ballot. A simple majority decides it.

In one sentence: voters are deciding whether to extend Maricopa County's existing 0.2 percent jail sales tax for 20 more years, or let it expire in March 2027.

What the tax is

The tax is one-fifth of one cent (0.2 percent) on retail sales across Maricopa County. You already pay it today. It costs 20 cents on every $100 of taxable purchases.

Voters first approved it in 1998 and renewed it in 2002, both times with roughly 70 percent support. It expires in March 2027. This measure extends it at the same rate through 2047. It is not a tax increase; it is the decision of whether an existing tax continues.

The money is large: about $288 million in fiscal year 2026, projected at about $313 million in the first full year after renewal, which is roughly 7 percent of the county's entire revenue. It pays for building, renovating, operating, and staffing the county's adult and juvenile jails, for correctional health care (medical care for people in custody), and for adult and juvenile probation.

A YES vote

Renews the 0.2 percent sales tax for 20 years, through 2047, at the current rate. Jail construction, operations, correctional health, and probation funding continue as they are funded today.

A NO vote

Lets the tax expire in March 2027. The county loses roughly $313 million a year, growing to about $324 million by fiscal 2028, while its legal duty to operate jails and provide inmate medical care stays exactly the same.

The math for your household

About $60 a year.

That is what 0.2 percent costs a household spending $30,000 a year on taxable purchases ($30,000 x 0.002). Spend half that on taxable goods, and the tax costs you about $30 a year. Because it is a sales tax, some of it is also paid by visitors shopping in Maricopa County, not only by residents.

The strongest case for YES

  • The spending is mostly not optional. An independent review cited by the county found about 99 percent of what this tax funds is legally mandated. The county cannot choose to stop housing, feeding, and providing medical care to people in its custody.
  • The capital needs are specific. The Towers Jail, the county's largest, dates to the 1980s and needs replacement. The Lower Buckeye and Fourth Avenue jails need major plumbing work. The Estrella Jail, which houses women, needs renovation.
  • The alternative is a worse tax for homeowners. The independent analysis says that if the tax lapses, the realistic replacements are large property tax increases, cuts to public safety services, or both, and that even raising the county property tax to the legal maximum would not fully cover the mandated costs.

The strongest case for NO

  • Twenty years is a long lock-in. This tax has been renewed on a similar schedule since 1998. A no vote forces the county to come back with a fresh case, possibly for a shorter term or a smaller amount, instead of another two decades on autopilot.
  • Sales taxes fall hardest on lower-income shoppers, who spend a larger share of their income on taxable goods.
  • The county should have to prioritize. The standing argument against renewals like this one is that a real budget squeeze is the only reliable way to make a large government find efficiencies inside what it already collects.

What happens if it fails

The jails do not close and the cost does not disappear. The legal mandate to run them remains, and only the funding source goes away. County officials and the Sheriff's Office say the gap would be filled by some mix of property tax increases and service cuts, with the Sheriff's Office warning of staffing cuts, possible jail closures, and earlier release of low-level offenders to fit the capacity the county can still pay for. Treat the exact mix as a projection, not a certainty: what is certain is the size of the hole, roughly $313 to $324 million a year.

The fine print

  • "No tax increase" is accurate and incomplete at the same time. A yes keeps a tax you pay today; a no is one of the rare ballot choices that is an actual tax cut, because the tax expires on its own in March 2027 if this fails.
  • The renewal runs through 2047 regardless of how jail needs change. There is no mid-course rate review built into the measure.
  • There is no large organized opposition campaign for this measure; the against arguments above are the standing critiques made of this tax and ones like it, not quotes from a funded campaign.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it. If your signature is questioned, the county will use that number to reach you.
  • Leaving any item blank, including this measure, is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Read the official ballot language yourself before you vote; we link it because we want you to check us. Back to Ballot Math home.