Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD4
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 4

LD4: the swing district that could decide control of the Legislature

November 3, 2026 general election. District 4 covers parts of north Phoenix and Scottsdale and all of Paradise Valley, in Maricopa County. Registration: 27 percent Democratic, 40 percent Republican, 33 percent other. The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district "highly competitive," with a composite Republican advantage of about 3.4 points, and the 2024 presidential vote in the district was Republican by about 3.5 points. Republicans hold all three of the district's legislative seats after flipping two of them in 2024. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Werner vs. Lieberman for the seat Werner flipped in 2024

The structural fact: Sen. Carine Werner (R) won this seat in 2024 by beating the Democratic incumbent, Christine Marsh, 51.9 to 48.1 percent. That margin, in a district the redistricting commission calls highly competitive, is the whole race: both parties treat LD4 as one of the few districts that can flip, and the money below shows it. Both nominees won their July 21, 2026 primaries unopposed.

Carine Werner (Republican, incumbent)

LD4 state senator since January 2025. She also serves on the Scottsdale Unified School District governing board and is not running for reelection to that board this year. At the Capitol she chairs the Senate Health and Human Services Committee and is vice chair of the Education Committee. She and her family immigrated to the United States; she is married with three children.

Record in one term, from her sponsored bills (azleg and LegiScan listings):

  • Health care worker radiation protection (SB 1118, SB 1120, SB 1121, 2026). Her package would require modern radiation protection systems in hospital procedure rooms, end mandatory lead aprons where those systems are installed, and fund grants so rural hospitals can comply. The Senate Republicans and the industry group ORSIF describe it as first in the nation; SB 1121 became law in June 2026.
  • Medical schools; admissions; in-state students. A signed bill requiring Arizona medical schools to interview in-state applicants, the measure azcentral cites as her signature health bill alongside the radiation package.
  • School district partisan elections (SB 1441). Her bill to require school board candidates to disclose party affiliation on the ballot passed the Legislature and was vetoed by Gov. Hobbs, per opponent mailer reporting in AZ Free News and the bill's LegiScan listing as vetoed.
  • Scorecard votes, attributed: the Freedom Index (John Birch Society) 2025 scorecard lists her voting YES on HB 2017 (restrict voting centers and cap precinct size), SB 1498 (sheriff permission for federal law enforcement actions), SB 1495 (Defend the Guard), SB 1432 (prohibit geoengineering), and SB 1096 (state bullion depository), and lists no vote on HCR 2041 (congressional term limits convention). Her campaign describes her as a "common-sense conservative" running to "protect Arizona families, improve affordability, strengthen our schools, and ensure government works for the people it serves."

Money: as of her March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $304,438, spent $40,683, $272,939 on hand. That is the largest war chest on this page and one of the largest in any Arizona legislative race this cycle. No later figure was retrieved, and her totals will have changed since.

Controversies, with both accounts: at an August 5, 2025 Scottsdale Unified governing board meeting, a hot microphone caught Werner calling Patti Bilbrey, the district's director of nutrition services, "morbidly obese." Bilbrey said Werner called five days later to express regret but "did not, and has not, apologized for the personal and inappropriate comments made about my appearance," and said the remarks were made in direct response to her presentation. Werner said she took full responsibility, reached out and apologized, called the conversation "very constructive and respectful," released a transcript in which she apologized repeatedly for Bilbrey being dragged into the matter, and called the backlash manufactured for political gain. A petition drive sought her resignation from the school board; she did not resign. Democratic-aligned mailers funded by Elevance Health and others later cited the episode, along with SB 1441 and SB 1435, against her in this Senate race.

Aaron Lieberman (Democrat)

Former state representative for the old 28th district, January 2019 to September 20, 2021, when he resigned to run for governor; he dropped out of the 2022 governor's race on May 27, 2022 and backed the Democratic nominee. Yale graduate, born in Tempe and raised in Phoenix, now living in Paradise Valley. Founder of Jumpstart, an early literacy nonprofit, and co-founder and longtime CEO of Acelero Learning, which expanded preschool and Head Start access; later CEO of a Phoenix surgery center and, per Vote Smart, founder and CEO of Buzze Inc. since 2022. In the House he sat on Appropriations, Education, Natural Resources, Energy and Water, and the Joint Committee on Capital Review.
  • His pitch is pragmatism: he told the Arizona Mirror his door knocking focuses on independents and moderate Republicans, that voters are "sick of all the fighting" and "sick of all the name calling," and that in his earlier term he worked with Republican Gov. Doug Ducey and Republican Speaker Rusty Bowers without agreeing with them.
  • Stated priorities (azcentral): more funding for public education and better access to quality health care, built on his early childhood education career.
  • Record note: no individual key votes from his 2019 to 2021 House term were verified at name level for this page, so none are printed. That is a gap in this page, admitted here rather than filled with assumed party line votes.
  • Money: as of his March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $101,585, spent $13,187, $88,398 on hand. A serious challenger fund, and still roughly a third of the incumbent's cash on hand at the same date.
  • Controversies: none of significance found. The attacks in this race have run the other direction, against Werner, funded by outside groups rather than by his campaign directly.

State House: two Republican incumbents, two Democratic challengers, two seats

How this race works: vote for up to two. All four candidates are credible and funded, which is rare on this site: two incumbents who flipped or held seats in the 2024 Republican sweep of this district, a former Scottsdale council member, and a sitting school board member. In the July primaries, Matt Gress led the Republican field with 20,955 votes and Pamela Carter took the second nomination over Sandra Christensen; Karen Gresham led the Democratic primary with 20,079 votes, ahead of Tammy Caputi at 18,762. No official write-in candidates were found for this race in the sources checked.

Matt Gress (Republican, incumbent)

LD4 state representative since January 2023. Chair of the House Education Committee and vice chair of the Joint Legislative Audit Committee. Originally from Oklahoma; a former teacher and school board member, and before the Legislature he was Gov. Doug Ducey's budget director, a role he credits for Arizona's large state income tax cut.

Record and stated priorities:

  • Education referrals (2026). He backed two major ballot measures from the 2026 session: one requiring many schools to spend no less than 60 percent of their funds on direct instructional or classroom expenses, and one barring school districts from allowing public funds to support teachers unions. Voters decide both this November.
  • Middle housing (HB 2375, 2026). His bill would require larger cities to allow duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, and townhomes on single family lots near central business districts and in a share of new developments.
  • Colorado River defense (HB 2116, 2026). He and Rep. Carter announced support for adding $1 million to the Colorado River Litigation Fund; the bill passed the House 56 to 0.
  • Campaign themes: conservative budgeting, public safety, and school choice; in October 2026 posts he highlighted what he called the most comprehensive school safety legislation in decades and expanded services for children with special needs.

Controversy, with responses: Gress's oversight fight with Tolleson Union High School District Superintendent Jeremy Calles became a lawsuit. As audit and education chair, Gress called Tolleson's $25 million leaseback deal to rescue the Isaac Elementary district "illegal" and "predatory" and said Calles's companies "reek of corruption," according to the suit. Calles maintains the deal was vetted by multiple attorneys, that neither he nor his firm benefited, and denies all corruption or misconduct allegations; he served a notice of claim in October 2025 and filed a defamation suit on April 16, 2026 claiming damage to his consulting business and reputation. Gress's public position throughout has been that the Legislature has constitutional authority to investigate the district's finances. The suit is an allegation, not a finding, and it is printed here as such.

Money: no clean cycle total for Gress was retrieved from Arizona campaign finance reporting for this page, so none is printed. A progressive group's October 2026 report listed him among recipients of a charter school linked PAC; the amount for his campaign was not stated in the reporting retrieved.

Pamela Carter (Republican, incumbent)

LD4 state representative since January 2025, an Arizona native living in Scottsdale. She lost a Scottsdale City Council race in 2022 before winning this seat in 2024. Her campaign site lists endorsements from the NRA (with an "A" rating), Turning Point Action, the Arizona Police Association, the Arizona State Troopers Association, the Fraternal Order of Police, NFIB Arizona, Americans for Prosperity Arizona, the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, and the Center for Arizona Policy.
  • First term record, in her campaign's account: five bills signed into law in her first term, described as child safety laws, protection for deployed military families, a Lemon Law fix, and a clearer voter guide. azcentral independently describes her focus on children, including a bill criminalizing adults who encourage children to die by suicide through online messages.
  • Other bills: HB 2374 (2026) would require county planning and zoning commissioners to disclose substantial interests and abstain on affected matters; HB 2323 (2026) broadens Arizona's motor vehicle warranty (Lemon Law) definition of consumer. She also pushed nuclear energy expansion and tax cuts for veterans' families, per azcentral.
  • Money: no clean cycle total for Carter was retrieved for this page, so none is printed.
  • Controversies: none of significance found.

Tammy Caputi (Democrat)

President and owner of Yale Electric West, an electrical supply company she founded in 2001 that supplies large infrastructure projects across the Valley. Scottsdale City Council member from 2021 to 2025, elected in 2020; she narrowly lost reelection in 2024. She is running on workforce development, investment in health care and public education, curbing "unnecessary regulations," and support for small businesses, and says her council work covered public safety, transportation, development, streets, and water security.
  • Money: the Arizona Progress Gazette reported that Caputi announced raising over $100,000 in the most recent reporting quarter, the highest total in this House field, despite entering the race late. That is her campaign's announcement as reported by a local outlet, not a figure this page pulled from a finance report, and it is labeled that way.
  • Residency questions, with her response: The Arizona Republic reported in October 2026 that Caputi registered to vote on February 22, 2026 at a Scottsdale condo inside LD4, the day before filing to run, after years registered at a north Scottsdale home about four miles outside the district that she and her husband bought in 2012. The condo is owned by Nestor and Susan Guzman, who each gave her campaign the $5,500 individual maximum, and it was listed for sale with sparsely furnished rooms in listing photos. Caputi declined an interview and said in a written statement: "Due to a change in circumstances, this is my current residence," and reiterated that she was living in the condo. The Arizona Republican Party later sought a criminal investigation into her residency filings, per AZ Free News; no finding against her was reported in the sources checked. Arizona judges have generally sided with candidates in residency challenges under a permissive physical presence plus intent standard, per the Republic's legal expert.
  • Threats reported: in October 2026 Caputi reported antisemitic death threats sent through her campaign website, including one from someone she knew, and reported them to Scottsdale police. "You can disagree with my policies, my politics, but threatening to murder me and my children, that's like a whole other level," she said. She said she has stopped canvassing doors without other volunteers along. This is printed as a campaign safety event targeting a candidate, not as a controversy about her conduct.

Karen Gresham (Democrat)

Former accountant and a Madison Elementary School District governing board member; she is simultaneously running for reelection to that school board and for this first term in the Legislature. (No relation to Rep. Gress established in any source; the similar names are a ballot reading hazard, not a connection this page can verify.)
  • Stated priorities (azcentral): advocate for public schools and water conservation, and stop cuts to government run services.
  • Endorsements, attributed: Reproductive Freedom for All, the Arizona Nurses Association, and several local labor unions.
  • Primary note: she finished first in the Democratic primary, ahead of Caputi, which matters in a two seat race where the two Democrats are effectively competing with the two Republicans for the top two spots, not only with each other.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located for Gresham as of October 27, 2026. Controversies: none found.

Verification notes

  • Key vote depth is uneven on this page. Werner's record is documented through her own sponsored bills and one attributed scorecard (the Freedom Index); no name level roll call votes were verified for Lieberman's 2019 to 2021 House term, for Gress, or for Carter, so this page prints their sponsored bills, committee roles, and stated positions instead of assuming party line votes.
  • Money is dated where it exists. The Senate figures are March 2026 reports via See the Money as compiled by Wikipedia; they are the last figures retrieved, not current totals. No clean cycle totals were retrieved for Gress, Carter, or Gresham, and the only House figure printed, Caputi's, is a campaign announcement reported by a local outlet and is labeled as such.
  • The 2024 presidential margin by legislative district (Republican by about 3.5 points) comes from the Wikipedia summary table for the 2026 Senate election; the redistricting commission's composite spread (Republican plus 3.42) is a different, older composite of key elections. Both are printed with their sources rather than merged.
  • Spelling preserved: the Tolleson superintendent's first name appears as both Jeremy and Jeremey in coverage; this page uses Jeremy, as ABC15 does, and otherwise refers to him by surname.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. No official write-in candidates were found for the LD4 Senate or House races in the sources checked for this page.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.
Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.