Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD3
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 3

LD3: a deep red district where the real fights were in the Republican primary

November 3, 2026 general election. District 3 covers the northeast corner of Maricopa County: most of Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Carefree, Anthem, New River, Rio Verde, and part of north Phoenix, including the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation, about 236,955 people. The district lies entirely within Maricopa County, though it borders Yavapai, Pinal, and Gila counties. Registration: 48.57 percent Republican, 19.80 percent Democratic, 31.63 percent other (2026 general election guide). The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district outside the competitive range, with a composite Republican advantage of about 25.64 points, and the 2024 presidential vote inside the district went Republican by 24.5 points. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Kavanagh vs. Fortney, the leader and the teacher

The structural fact: Sen. John Kavanagh, the Senate majority leader, was unopposed in the 2024 general election and has been elected, in his words, 10 times. He survived a real primary challenge in July 2026 with 85.23 percent of the vote. His Democratic opponent is a special education teacher and school board member running in a district with a roughly two to one Republican registration edge. The race is contested, but no source we found treats the outcome as in doubt.

John Kavanagh (Republican, incumbent)

State senator for District 3 (2023 to present, and previously 2015 to 2019), Senate majority leader, and a member of the Arizona Legislature for 19 years, moving between the House and Senate in the common workaround for term limits. Retired sergeant with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Lives in Fountain Hills with his wife, Linda, a former mayor of Fountain Hills. He defeated primary challenger Robert Wallace 85.23 to 14.77 percent in July 2026.

Key votes (verified individually via the Freedom Index 2025 scorecard):

  • HB 2017 (2025), restricting voting centers and capping precinct size at 1,000 registered voters: YES.
  • SB 1498 (2025), requiring federal law enforcement officers who are not Arizona certified peace officers to get written permission from the county sheriff before arrests, searches, or seizures in the state: YES. SB 1495 (2025), the Defend the Guard bill barring deployment of the Arizona National Guard into active duty combat without a congressional declaration of war: YES.
  • SB 1096 (2025), creating a state bullion depository for precious metals: YES. HCR 2041 (2025), applying for an Article V convention to propose congressional term limits: YES. SB 1432 (2025), prohibiting geoengineering in Arizona: DID NOT VOTE, printed as a non vote, not a position.

His pattern as a sponsor, per the Arizona Republic: near annual bills to ban transgender people from bathrooms and athletic locker rooms that do not match their sex at birth, and frequent alignment with the most strident conservative voices on immigration and crime enforcement. Scorecards, attributed: Freedom Index 2025 score of 80 percent; Sierra Club Grand Canyon Chapter rating of 0 percent (via Vote Smart).

Money: as of his March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $91,536, spent $6,254, and $175,293 on hand, the largest war chest on this page, most of it carried into the cycle. That date is part of the fact: no later figure was retrieved.

Controversies, with his responses: his general election opponent's central charge, in a Fortney campaign essay published by Blog for Arizona, is that Kavanagh has voted against the mail in voting his own constituents plead with him to keep, and once argued for limiting voting to "quality voters." Kavanagh's explanation, as quoted in that same essay, is that a quality voter is "a legal voter who says, 'I want a ballot,'" and that voters who do not ask for a ballot or follow politics are a different kind of voter. His primary was rougher: his campaign built an attack site, weirdwallace.com, against challenger Robert Wallace, which he told the Yellow Sheet Report cost about $1,000 and was "dedicated to telling the voters of LD 3 that this person is so weird that he should never represent us." Wallace answered with his own site, stopkavanagh.com, and at their Clean Elections debate accused Kavanagh of skewering his character. Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio first endorsed Wallace, then switched to Kavanagh, saying he had mistaken which office Wallace sought; Wallace alleged Senate President Warren Petersen had threatened Arpaio into switching, which Petersen called ridiculous and denied, and Kavanagh called Wallace's account "nonsensical." Kavanagh also dismissed his general election odds plainly to the Arizona Capitol Times: "I'm a proven, experienced commodity that they've elected 10 times already."

Jeffrey "Jeff" Fortney (Democrat)

Special education teacher and at large member of the Cave Creek Unified School District governing board since 2021, elected in 2020. Lives in Fountain Hills, the same town as Kavanagh, per Scottsdale Progress. First time candidate for the Legislature; he won the Democratic primary unopposed with 19,696 votes. The Arizona Republic labels him a longshot candidate, and his own campaign essay embraces the question of why anyone would take on this race.
  • Board record and stated goals, from his Cave Creek school board candidate questionnaire: treat teachers like the respected professionals they are; increase educator pay as the district's funding allows; get students more involved in the school board process; increase community involvement; and ensure students have access to a rigorous curriculum plus counselors and behavioral supports. He has also argued the district's voters too often reject bonds and overrides over tax increases, noting Cave Creek already has the lowest tax rate in the state.
  • Campaign frame: his essay attacks Kavanagh as complacent and out of touch, centers the mail in voting fight described in Kavanagh's entry, and promises to listen to constituents who use and love mail in voting.
  • Money: as of March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $7,195, spent $3,491, $3,704 on hand. No later total was located.
  • Controversies: none found. He declined to answer the Arizona Voter Guide survey, per that guide.

State House: two seats, five candidates, three parties

How this race works: vote for up to two. Both seats turned over this cycle: Rep. Alexander Kolodin is running for secretary of state instead, and Rep. Joseph Chaplik resigned in March 2026 to run for Congress, replaced by appointment with Cody Reim. So the ballot holds two Republicans (an appointed incumbent and the primary's top vote getter), two Democrats, and one No Labels candidate who reached the ballot as a primary write in with seven votes. In a district this Republican, the practical contest was the July primary, where George Khalaf finished first with 23,165 votes and Reim second with 18,713, ahead of Jay Schlum (18,046) and Thomas M. Walsh II (8,863).

Cody Reim (Republican, incumbent by appointment)

State representative since March 18, 2026, appointed unanimously by the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to fill the vacancy left when Joseph Chaplik resigned to run for Congress. Small business owner; the Arizona Republic specifies a construction company. He lives in Rio Verde Foothills with his wife and four children, and has called Arizona home for fourteen years. A political newcomer whose public identity was built entirely by the Rio Verde Foothills water crisis.

How he got here: when Scottsdale shut off hauled water service to Rio Verde Foothills at the start of 2023, Reim became one of the community's most outspoken advocates for a long term water source, work that took several years across local, county, and state government. Supervisor Thomas Galvin, who nominated him, told the board Reim "brought his neighbors together when they were fighting each other." One nuance, reported by State Affairs: among the district's Republican precinct committeemen, Reim had finished third in the preference vote behind George Khalaf and Michelle Ugenti-Rita, and the board picked him anyway, by a 5 to 0 vote.

Record so far: his first recorded floor vote as a lawmaker, per State Affairs, was an AYE on HB 2375 (2026), the bill allowing cities to exempt historic districts from the state middle housing law, which passed 31 to 24; he said the vote was difficult and followed what he heard from Scottsdale constituents. On his signature second issue, he has positioned himself as a protector of the Salt River wild horses, attending a rally for the herd, saying the Salt River Horse Act "was never intended to justify removing these horses," and announcing plans to introduce legislation requiring science based protections for the herd.

Stated priorities, from his official Legislature biography: protecting Arizona's water resources, strengthening the economy, supporting quality education, and promoting limited, effective government, with a constituent first approach.

Money: no 2026 cycle total located in the sources retrieved. Controversies: none beyond the appointment preference vote noted above.

George Khalaf (Republican)

First time candidate from Scottsdale, and the top vote getter in the Republican primary. President of Data Orbital, the polling firm he founded, and a managing partner of The Resolute Group, a political consulting firm. Former political director of the Arizona Republican Party. Born in Lebanon, per an Arizona Progress Gazette profile, and a graduate of Dobson High School. Ballotpedia lists his early career experience as marketing consulting.
  • Stated priorities: announcing his run in November 2025, he said, "I have been on the front lines fighting for school choice, pro-life, parental rights and more efficient government and will bring that energy to the state house." In his Arizona Republic questionnaire he said he wants Arizona's flat tax rate lowered, and that the private school voucher (Empowerment Scholarship Account) program needs no further regulation despite recent reports of misspending by some beneficiaries.
  • Endorsements, attributed: Scottsdale school board member Amy Carney, former state Sen. Nancy Barto, and Cathi Herrod, former president of the Center for Arizona Policy, among other northeast valley officials and activists (State Affairs).
  • The open question about his candidacy is a structural one, not a scandal: he runs one of the state's best known polling firms while running for office himself, and his firm polls the same Arizona electorate he is asking to elect him. His supporters, including the Gazette profile, call that a pollster's edge and a reputation for transparency; no reporting retrieved accuses his firm of shading its numbers for his race.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located.

Julie Gable (Democrat)

Longtime technology consultant from the district. She started her career as a coder, led complex systems projects at Accenture, and owned and operated local technology consulting firms; she is the founder and CEO of BusinessWhys. She recently served as CEO of a behavioral health organization specializing in addiction recovery services. Bachelor's from Arizona State University. She sits on the boards of the Arizona Humane Society and the Arizona Center for Nature Conservation, which operates the Phoenix Zoo. She finished first in the Democratic primary with 18,522 votes. She is running as a Clean Elections participating candidate, meaning public financing after qualifying contributions, and her campaign site states that as a Clean Elections candidate she can no longer accept donations.
  • Stated priorities, from her campaign site and Scottsdale Progress debate coverage: health care first, drawn from running a behavioral health organization: protect Arizona's Medicaid program from cuts, protect and expand behavioral health infrastructure, protect rural hospitals, and expand preventive and primary care. On technology, "put Arizonans before algorithms," with responsible regulation of artificial intelligence. On school vouchers, more transparency and accountability tied to measurable outcomes; she argues vouchers have had little transparency and no proven outcomes while draining millions from public schools, and that "strengthening public schools and supporting school choice are not opposing goals." On water, secure a sustainable supply by bringing business leaders, environmental experts, rural communities, and local governments together.
  • Endorsements, attributed: the Arizona Technology Council endorsed her for 2026, alongside, unusually, Republican Jay Schlum, who lost the Republican primary.
  • Money: consistent with Clean Elections participation, no traditional donor totals were located; see verification notes. Controversies: none found. She declined to answer the Arizona Voter Guide survey, per that guide.

Richard "Rick" Spargo (Democrat)

President and founder of Personnel Solutions, a national medical and pharmaceutical recruiting firm. Lives in North Scottsdale. He finished second in the Democratic primary with 14,509 votes.

This entry is short because the public record is thin, and inventing a platform would be worse than admitting it. Beyond the biography above, from the Arizona Republic's legislature guide, our research found no campaign issues page, no questionnaire answers (he declined the Arizona Voter Guide survey, per that guide), and no news coverage of his candidacy beyond candidate listings as of October 27, 2026. Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found.

John Skirbst (No Labels)

Account manager with CVS Health and founder of Sport 2 Combat Racism, a nonprofit dedicated to "using sport as a catalyst for positive social change," per his LinkedIn as summarized by Scottsdale Progress. This is his third run for the Legislature since 2022: he ran once as a Democrat and once as an independent, and this time under the No Labels banner, which he won as a write in candidate in the party's primary with 7 votes. Note that the party now also uses the name Arizona Independent Party; his ballot designation in the general election guide is No Labels.
  • Stated positions, from his Secretary of State candidate statement as reported by Scottsdale Progress: he describes himself as "a moderate and independent voice," a fiscal conservative who leans liberal on social issues. He says common sense gun laws can coexist with the Second Amendment, that people on both sides of the abortion debate should respect each other's choices, that border security money should go to technology, staffing, and "barriers where they make sense," and that the state should improve water management and enact conservation strategies.
  • Debate note: Ballot Access News reported that Skirbst did not debate in the Clean Elections series.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found. He declined to answer the Arizona Voter Guide survey, per that guide.

Verification notes

  • Skirbst's surname is spelled two ways in official adjacent sources: the 2026 general election guide prints "Skibst, John," while Scottsdale Progress, Ballot Access News, the Arizona Voter Guide, and Wikipedia's primary results all use "Skirbst." This page uses Skirbst and flags the discrepancy because a voter searching either spelling should find this entry.
  • Money outside the Senate race is largely missing. March 2026 See the Money tables exist for Kavanagh and Fortney and are printed with their dates. No cycle totals were located for Reim, Khalaf, Gable, Spargo, or Skirbst as of October 27, 2026. Gable's funding model is Clean Elections public financing, which is why her private fundraising looks near zero by design.
  • Key vote depth is uneven by necessity. Kavanagh's votes come from the Freedom Index's individual 2025 scorecard. Reim has been in office only since March 2026, so his record is one verified floor vote plus his public statements; nothing earlier exists to check. The three first time candidates have no legislative record, by definition.
  • Fortney's charges against Kavanagh and Kavanagh's "quality voters" explanation both come from Fortney's own campaign essay, a partisan source used here because it quotes the explanation and because the underlying 2021 remarks were widely reported at the time. The essay is attributed wherever it is used.
  • The Arpaio endorsement episode rests on State Affairs reporting of the primary, with each man's response printed in Kavanagh's entry: Arpaio's mistaken identity explanation, Petersen's denial, Wallace standing by his account, and Kavanagh's dismissal.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. No official write-in candidates for the LD3 Senate or House races were listed in the sources checked for this page. John Skirbst appears as a printed name on the November ballot; you do not need to write him in. Write the name exactly and fill the oval if you use the line for anyone else.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.
Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.