Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD11
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 11

LD11: a 2024 rematch in one of Arizona's safest Democratic districts

November 3, 2026 general election. District 11 covers south Phoenix, Laveen, and Guadalupe, entirely within Maricopa County. Registration: 44 percent Democratic, 15 percent Republican, 40 percent other. The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district "not competitive," with a composite Democratic advantage of about 53.9 points, the largest on this site, and recent results match: the Democratic Senate candidate won with 72.2 percent in 2024, and the district voted Democratic by about 39.8 points in the 2024 presidential race. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Miranda vs. Ayala, again

The structural fact: this is an exact rematch of 2024, which Sen. Catherine Miranda (D) won 72.2 to 27.8 percent against Joshua Ayala (R). Both were unopposed in their July 21, 2026 primaries: Miranda took 12,905 Democratic primary votes, Ayala 3,435 Republican primary votes, a turnout gap that mirrors the registration gap. In a district with a composite Democratic spread above 50 points, this race is effectively decided barring a collapse; it is printed in full anyway, because the incumbent has a long and checkable record.

Catherine Miranda (Democrat, incumbent)

LD11 state senator since January 2023 in her current stint; her legislative service is non consecutive and long: House 2011 to 2015 (Districts 16 and then 27), Senate District 27 in 2015 to 2019, then back to the Senate in District 11 in 2023. She most recently served as Senate assistant minority leader. Born October 5, 1964. She served on the Roosevelt School District governing board before the Legislature and says education cuts are what moved her to run. She is the widow of former Rep. Ben Miranda, whose former seat she first won.

Key votes (verified individually via Vote Smart and reported roll calls):

  • HB 2133 (2026), age and consent verification for sexual material published online: NO (Senate conference report vote, June 9, 2026).
  • HCR 2001 (2026), the referral that became Prop 144 (the FAST Election Results Act): NO, per the Freedom Index's Senate record for her. Prop 144 itself is covered on its own page.
  • SB 1426 (2026), expediting removal of unlawful occupants: NO, the lone no vote in a 25 to 1 Senate passage, per State Affairs. Her stated reason, in that reporting: she understood the need to protect homeowners but cited homelessness and a lack of support from the state and the city of Phoenix. That is a dissent with a stated rationale, printed with both.
  • HB 2859 (2024 session): YES, per a published Senate roll call on Open States.

Stated priorities, in her words via the Arizona Republic: she will be an advocate for "homelessness, the severely mentally ill, quality education, and job creation initiatives that benefit all Arizonans," alongside the education reform work she has pushed since 2011. Endorsements and scorecards, attributed: endorsed by Reproductive Freedom for All for 2026; Sierra Club Grand Canyon Chapter rating of 92 percent in the listing retrieved via Vote Smart; Freedom Index score of 15 percent in its listing.

Money: as of her March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $18,750, spent $12,331.79, $36,671.11 on hand. That date is part of the fact: no later figure was retrieved.

Controversies: none of significance found for this cycle. Her lone no vote on SB 1426 drew attention precisely because it was lone; her explanation is printed above with the vote.

Joshua Ayala (Republican)

Financial services business owner. He was the Republican nominee for this seat in 2024, losing 72.2 to 27.8 percent, and won the 2026 Republican primary unopposed with 3,435 votes.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): he argues he will fight to ensure Laveen, south Phoenix, and Guadalupe receive the same services as the rest of the Valley; his campaign highlights public safety and family values.
  • Record: no prior elective record in the sources retrieved. Money: no campaign finance totals located; he appears on Clean Elections funded candidate lists retrieved for this cycle. Controversies: none found.

State House: two incumbents, two challengers, a 50 point district

How this race works: vote for up to two. Four candidates are on the ballot for two seats: Democrats Junelle Cavero and Oscar De Los Santos, both incumbents, and Republicans Cesar Aleman and Joseph Dailey. With two candidates per party for two seats and a composite Democratic advantage above 50 points, the incumbents are heavily favored to hold both seats; the honest description is that this general election is a formality unless something changes the district's basic math.

Oscar De Los Santos (Democrat, incumbent)

LD11 state representative since January 2023 and House Minority Leader since January 2025; his campaign notes he is the youngest Democratic state legislative leader in the country. Born in Los Angeles in 1994 to immigrant parents from Tenamaxtlan, Mexico. USC bachelor's (magna cum laude, Truman Scholar), master's in public policy from Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar, master's from Union Theological Seminary, and a Yale Law School JD track with a Soros Fellowship. Before the Legislature: sixth grade teacher in south Phoenix and head of public policy for the Association of Arizona Food Banks.

Key votes (verified individually via Vote Smart):

  • HB 2677 (2024), repeal of the 1864 near total abortion ban: YES, and a sponsor of the bill.
  • HB 2133 (2026), online age and consent verification: NO (conference report). HCR 2056 (2026), constitutional right to refuse medical mandates: NO. HCR 2001 (2026), the referral behind Prop 144: NO. HB 2223 (2026), disclosure when a registered sex offender requests a legal name change: YES.
  • HCR 2016 (2026), precinct based voting referral: DID NOT VOTE, printed here as a non vote, not a position.
  • SB 1106 (2026), aligning state tax rates with the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill" rates: NO. HB 2704 (2025), tax distribution for a new Diamondbacks stadium: NO.

Stated priorities and support, attributed: affordable college tuition and protections for workers, per his campaign and the Arizona Republic; endorsed by the Arizona Education Association, the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, the Sierra Club Grand Canyon Chapter, and several local labor unions in the listings retrieved. Scorecard, attributed: Freedom Index 2025 to 2026 House score of 36 in its listing; Institute for Legislative Analysis score of 6 percent for 2023.

Money: no clean cycle total for him was retrievable without mixing cycles, so none is printed. Controversies: none of significance found; as minority leader he is the House Democrats' chief public critic of the Republican majority, which is the job, reported as such.

Junelle Cavero (Democrat, incumbent)

LD11 state representative since April 17, 2024, when the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors appointed her to replace Rep. Marcelino Quinonez, who had resigned; she then won a full term in November 2024. Political consultant and business owner; former executive director of the Arizona Fair Housing Center. NYU bachelor's and an American University MPA. She previously ran for the State Senate in 2022, losing the Democratic primary to Catherine Miranda. Of Filipino descent; she served as an Arizona delegate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): job growth in the semiconductor industry and artificial intelligence, while protecting the state's natural resources.
  • Key votes: no individually verified key votes for Cavero were retrieved from Vote Smart in this research pass, and none are assumed here. That is a research gap, stated openly; her tenure also began partway through the 2024 session, which shortens the record either way. See verification notes.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found.

Cesar Aleman (Republican)

Worship director at Laveen Baptist Church; previously worked at the Boys and Girls Clubs of the Valley, per the Arizona Republic.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): running to "protect families as the foundation of strong neighborhoods" in Laveen and south Phoenix.
  • Record: no prior elective record in the sources retrieved. Money: no totals located; he appears on Clean Elections funded candidate lists retrieved for this cycle. Controversies: none found.

Joseph Dailey (Republican)

South Phoenix resident; electrical engineer by background, per the Arizona Republic.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): supporting the state's infrastructure and education system; he says his leadership experience has prepared him for public office.
  • Record: no prior elective record in the sources retrieved. Money: no totals located; he appears on Clean Elections funded candidate lists retrieved for this cycle. Controversies: none found.

Verification notes

  • Key vote depth is this page's known shortfall on one side. De Los Santos has seven individually verified votes via Vote Smart and Miranda has four via Vote Smart, the Freedom Index, State Affairs, and Open States. No name level key votes were retrieved for Cavero, Ayala, Aleman, or Dailey (the latter three have no legislative record to check), and no party line votes were added without a name level source.
  • Money is thin across this page. Only Miranda has a dated figure (March 2026). No clean cycle totals were located for De Los Santos, Cavero, Ayala, Aleman, or Dailey; several of the challengers and Ayala appear on Clean Elections funded lists, which is consistent with small public financing campaigns rather than large donor operations.
  • Competitiveness language: "effectively decided" in the raceboxes is this site's characterization of the registration and 2024 margins, not a forecaster's rating. No forecaster rating for these specific races was found.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. Write the name exactly and fill the oval. No official write-in for these two LD11 races was verified for the general election in our research.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.