Ballot Math / Arizona Legislature / LD10
Candidate races: Arizona Legislature, District 10

LD10: a safe Republican district with a three way Senate ballot

November 3, 2026 general election. District 10 covers Mesa and a small portion of Apache Junction, about 235,579 people. It is one of the few legislative districts on this site that extends beyond Maricopa County: 43 of its 46 precincts are in Maricopa County and three are in Pinal County. Registration: 22 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, 34 percent other. The Independent Redistricting Commission rated the district outside the competitive range, with a composite Republican advantage of about 22.7 points, and recent results match: the Republican Senate candidate won with 61.5 percent in 2024, and the district voted Republican by about 20.9 points in the 2024 presidential race. No forecaster publishes a rating for these specific races.

State Senate: Farnsworth vs. Moses vs. Fierro

The structural fact: this is a three candidate race in a district Republicans carried by more than 20 points in 2024. Incumbent Sen. Dave Farnsworth (R) faces Democrat Blair Moses and independent Nick Fierro. All three won their places without a contested primary fight for the nomination itself: Farnsworth and Moses were each unopposed in their July 21, 2026 primaries. In a district with this spread, the general election is competitive only if the anti incumbent vote consolidates, and here it is split between two challengers.

Dave Farnsworth (Republican, incumbent)

LD10 state senator since January 2023. His service is non consecutive, which is why a six term lawmaker is still eligible: House District 4 in 1995 to 1997, appointed to the Senate in September 2013 to fill the vacancy left by Rich Crandall, Senate service to January 2021, then elected again in District 10 in 2022. Born in Mexico City in 1951, raised in Mesa, Mesa High School graduate, associate degree from Mesa Community College. Career in real estate investing and rental management, licensed real estate and insurance work, and a supervisory role at Home Depot. He currently chairs the Senate Ethics Committee and the Transportation and Technology Committee and is a former chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

How he got here matters to his record: in the 2022 Republican primary he defeated then Rep. Russell Bowers by about 65 to 35 percent. Contemporary reporting attributed that result in large part to Bowers's resistance to efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Farnsworth then won the 2024 general election 61.5 to 38.5 percent.

Key votes and positions (verified individually where a source names him):

  • Immigration enforcement, 2025: NumbersUSA, which scores lawmakers on immigration enforcement, records him voting with its position on all three of its scored 2025 Senate bills: HB 2099 (directing state officials to assist federal immigration enforcement), SB 1164 (the Arizona ICE Act, allowing local agencies to enter federal 287(g) agreements), and SB 1268 (hospital reporting of patient immigration status). His lifetime NumbersUSA alignment is listed at about 98 percent.
  • HB 2859 (2024 session): YES and SB 1599: YES, per published Senate roll calls on Open States. Both votes are printed here as roll call facts, not as summaries of the bills, because the retrieved roll calls do not carry reliable bill summaries.
  • His own 2025 proposal: a bill capping base salaries of Arizona university presidents at $500,000 and limiting their bonuses, reported by the Arizona Republic. He has also helped secure funding for advanced air mobility, described in Republic coverage as flying cars and related transportation innovation.

Scorecards, attributed: Sierra Club Grand Canyon Chapter rating of 0 percent in the listing retrieved via Vote Smart; NumbersUSA lifetime alignment about 98 percent, as above.

Money: two figures, two dates, and they do not match, so both are printed. Wikipedia, citing Arizona See the Money reports as of March 2026, lists him at $0 raised, $0 spent, $0 on hand. A TransparencyUSA race listing retrieved in October 2026 lists $19,650 in contributions and $2,452.77 in expenditures. The March figure looks like a non filing or a late starting committee rather than a full cycle picture; either way, this is not an expensive Senate campaign by Arizona standards.

Controversies: none specific to this cycle found beyond the 2022 primary history above, which is electoral context, not a scandal.

Blair Moses (Democrat)

Former attorney with a background in health care, per the Arizona Republic. First time candidate for this seat. She won the Democratic primary unopposed with 14,577 votes. Endorsed by Equality Arizona and listed among the National Democratic Redistricting Committee's Democracy Defenders.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): affordability, protecting constitutional rights, public school funding, and expanding Arizonans' access to health insurance coverage.
  • Record: no legislative record exists to check; she has not held elective office in the sources retrieved.
  • Money: as of March 2026 campaign finance reports, raised $2,679.05, spent $151.27, $2,463.73 on hand. A TransparencyUSA race listing retrieved in October 2026 lists $30,298.05 in contributions and $3,959.54 in expenditures. The two figures are from different report dates and both are printed with their dates for that reason.
  • Controversies: none found.

Nick Fierro (Independent)

A doctor, running as an independent with no party primary. Ballotpedia and Wikipedia list him as an independent candidate; the general election guide lists him under Independent.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): making "positive, lasting change not just for ourselves, but also for our children," by funding Arizona trade schools, teaching personal finance, and addressing homelessness.
  • Debate note: Ballot Access News reported that in the Clean Elections debate series for this district, Fierro debated the Democratic nominee while the Republican incumbent did not appear. That is a debate attendance fact, reported as such.
  • Money: as of March 2026 reports, raised $2,161.84, spent $59.96, $424.04 on hand. A TransparencyUSA listing retrieved in October 2026 lists $2,472.29 in contributions and $446.31 in expenditures.
  • Controversies: none found.

State House: two seats, five candidates, one open seat

How this race works: vote for up to two. Five candidates are on the ballot for two seats: Republicans Justin Olson (incumbent) and James Rogers, Democrats Brian Calaway and Helen Hunter, and No Labels candidate David Scott. The second current representative, Ralph Heap (R), is not on this ballot; he is running for the Arizona Corporation Commission instead, so one House seat is open even though an incumbent is running. In a district with a Republican composite advantage above 20 points, the realistic contest is whether the Republican slate holds both seats or a challenger breaks into second place.

Justin Olson (Republican, incumbent)

LD10 state representative since January 2025, in his second separate run in the House: he previously served 2011 to 2017 in Districts 19 and 25. Between House stints he served on the Arizona Corporation Commission, appointed by Gov. Doug Ducey in October 2017 and elected to a full term in 2018, serving to January 2023. He lost the 2022 Republican primary for U.S. Senate to Blake Masters and the 2016 Republican primary for Congress to Andy Biggs. Born in Mesa in 1979, bachelor's and MBA from Arizona State University. He works as chief financial officer of Turning Point USA and previously as a tax analyst and tax manager. He is vice chair of the Arizona Freedom Caucus and chairs the House Ways and Means Committee per his voter guide biography.

Record and stated positions: the Arizona Republic reports that in 2026 he was among the most vocal supporters of conforming Arizona tax law to the federal tax changes, the session's biggest fiscal fight, and that he sponsored a proposed law restricting teachers unions that voters will see on the November ballot as a referral. His own campaign biography claims credit from his earlier House service for tax cuts, a balanced budget, expanded school choice, and border funding, and lists an A rating history from the NRA and taxpayer and business group awards. Those are his campaign's claims and are attributed as such.

Key votes: no individually verified 2026 key votes for Olson were retrieved from Vote Smart in this research pass; his older Vote Smart record includes a 2025 vote against SB 1316 (maternal mortality review program) and a 2025 yes on SB 1705 (firearm preemption). This page does not fill the 2026 gap by assuming party line votes. See verification notes.

Controversies, with the criticism attributed: the Arizona Republic reports he was criticized in 2018 for reciting talking points from Arizona Public Service to a Wall Street analyst while serving as a corporation commissioner, and criticized again in 2026 by current Commissioner Kevin Thompson over Corporation Commission related bills Olson sponsored in the House. No response from Olson to the 2026 criticism was included in the coverage retrieved.

Money: no clean cycle total for Olson was located in the records retrieved, so none is printed.

James Rogers (Republican)

Harvard educated lawyer who lives in Mesa. He works for America First Legal, the advocacy law firm co founded by Stephen Miller and Gene Hamilton, and is doing pro bono work for Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap in Heap's dispute with the Board of Supervisors over election powers, per the Arizona Republic. He and Olson are running as a slate.
  • Stated priorities (his campaign site, via the Republic): he says he has the "skills, experience, and backbone to help make Arizona permanently red"; making the state more affordable so young people can raise families; and protecting children from what he calls "radical gender ideology."
  • Record: no prior elective record in the sources retrieved. Money: no cycle total located. Controversies: none found beyond the Heap representation, which is listed here as employment context because election administration is a live district issue.

Brian Calaway (Democrat)

Former science educator. First time candidate in the sources retrieved.
  • Stated priorities (Arizona Republic): "fair wages," "education for all," and support for farmers.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. Controversies: none found.

Helen Hunter (Democrat)

Reverend and self described community advocate, member of AFSCME. She has served on Mesa's Use of Force Committee and as a leader in the East Valley NAACP, per the Arizona Republic. She previously ran for this district: in the 2022 House general election she was the lone Democrat on the ballot and finished third with 36,182 votes behind the two Republicans.
  • Stated priorities: no detailed platform was retrieved beyond the community advocacy background above; her campaign site was reported as not working in a September 2026 candidate listing, which is one reason detail is thin here.
  • Money: no campaign finance totals located. She appears on Clean Elections funded candidate lists retrieved for this cycle, which indicates a public financing route rather than a traditional donor campaign. Controversies: none found.

David Scott (No Labels)

Business and finance background. He leads a community bank's Arizona operations and serves on the boards of Junior Achievement of Arizona, the Million Dollar Teacher Project, the Phoenix East Valley Partnership, and the Gilbert Chamber of Commerce, per the Arizona Republic.
  • Debate note: Ballot Access News reported Scott debated the two Democratic House candidates in the Clean Elections series.
  • Stated priorities: no detailed platform retrieved beyond the civic and business background above. Money: no totals located. Controversies: none found.

Verification notes

  • Key vote depth is uneven and this page says so where it happens. Farnsworth's immigration votes rest on NumbersUSA's scored bill list and two Open States roll calls. No name level 2026 Vote Smart key votes were retrieved for Olson, Calaway, Hunter, Rogers, Scott, Moses, or Fierro, and no party line votes were assumed for anyone.
  • Money conflicts are preserved, not averaged. Farnsworth and Moses each have a March 2026 See the Money figure and a later TransparencyUSA figure that differ sharply; both are printed with dates. No House cycle totals were located for any of the five House candidates.
  • The Secretary of State's primary write in list includes a Democratic write in for House District 10, Robert "Robbie" Hernandez McDonald Jr. No general election official write in for the LD10 Senate or House races was verified in the sources retrieved, so the how to vote box uses the general rule only.
  • District geography: Wikipedia's district entry counts 43 Maricopa precincts and three Pinal precincts. The Senate race description in some sources says only Maricopa County; the precinct count is the more specific source and is the one used here.

How to vote without getting your ballot rejected

  • Mail it by Tuesday, October 27, 2026. After that day, do not mail it: use a drop box or a vote center instead.
  • It must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. Postmarks do not count.
  • Sign and date the affidavit envelope, and write a current phone number on it.
  • For write-ins: only votes for officially filed write-in candidates are counted. Write the name exactly and fill the oval. No official write-in for these two LD10 races was verified for the general election in our research.
  • Leaving any item blank is allowed. It does not affect the rest of your ballot.

Sources

Ballot Math: analysis only, no endorsements. Same template as every race on this site: offices and record, key votes, money with dates, stated priorities, controversies with responses, and gaps admitted in the open.